We believe that today's announcement, coupled with upcoming events make NAVB a company
with a profitable and independent future. If Lymphoseek only had potential as an ILM agent for
breast cancer and melanoma, NAVB could be relegated to the role of a moderately profitable
company that could easily be rolled into a larger corporation. However, the range of options
and capabilities the company faces makes it a significant, if now nascent concern.
Given the benefits of Lymphoseek over isosulfan blue dye or Sulfur Colloid, coupled with the
marketing presence and strength of CAH, it is probable that Lymphoseek will quickly supersede
both of those two agents for ILM. Consider, that in ILM for breast, melanoma, head and neck,
and colorectal alone, Lymphoseek has the potential for sales of a half-million doses a year.
Then there are other solid tumor cancers, such as lung or prostate, in which Lymphoseek could,
for the first time, potentially be used as a staging agent.
As this agent is accepted and its superior capabilities become apparent, there will be those
physicians who will ultimately want to use it in Sentinel Lymph Node Mapping, which is a
procedure to identify the first lymph node into which a cancer is likely to spread from the
primary tumor. Since there currently is no FDA approved product for sentinel lymph node
mapping, it is likely that there will be interest in using Lymphoseek for this procedure.
Strengthening NAVB's position is the possession of two other promising agents. One of which,
is a Phase II diagnostic for Alzheimer's Disease. NAVB has now demonstrated that it has the
wherewithal to shepherd a diagnostic product through the FDA approval process. Any acquirer
would need to demonstrate that it too has such a capability or incur the disapproval of a large
segment of the public, medical community and potentially the FDA.
CAH has long been identified as the most probable acquirer of NAVB once Lymphoseek
becomes a commercial product. By acquiring NAV 4694, NAVB has raised the acquisition
stakes for any potential takeover. CAH has no development experience and the breadth of
potential applications for Lymphoseek, combined with prospects for NAV 4694 and long-term
potential for RIGScan raise the stakes for acquisition.
WBB still uses a sum of the parts model in its valuation of NAVB. Following the FDA’s approval
of Tilmanocept and using a fully diluted share counted of 154MM shares, we are now
increasing our 12-month target price to $9.00. This recognizes both 2013E revenue and
certainly earnings will not be representative of the franchise’s potential. Instead we look to
measure the full value of NAVB by assigning an increased $5.50 value to Lymphoseek. With
the increased partnering visibility of the global Alzheimer’s epidemic we now value AZD4694 at
$1.10 and continue to assign a $2.40 per share value for the RIGS technology.
Sometimes they have a little more insight into a stock than the avg. joe (me / you)... However, it's just an opinion... Sometime the market reacts and may move up significantly on one of such analysts opinions, but that's (SP) usually managed by the MM, they actually do control the SP flow... They're also in the business of making money off of EVERY trade,,, and if they can lowball a retailer like us they will... with both hands!!!