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Navidea Biopharmaceuticals, Inc Message Board

  • exdivy exdivy Mar 14, 2013 1:34 PM Flag

    It is not the shorts!

    I realize this is the remnant of a penny stock message board, but please try to think this through.

    1. No short in his/her right mind would dump millions of shares into a stock that just got FDA approval. Think about it. Shorts have a limited amount of stock to short (limited by their money). When that dries up, they could never ever clear their position without creating the greatest short squeeze in the history of stocks.

    2. Shorts need to cover. Who do you think is doing the buying? Clearly, some shorts must be trying to cover at these prices. They are probably responsible for a lot of the buying.

    3. The selling is from a party that holds lots of stock, but needs to sell to meet obligations. Doesn't that sound like Montaur? Doesn't Montaur dump shares everytime NEOP/NAVB does something right? Go back and check the records. I tried to tell people here that a long, long time ago.

    4.If Montaur has to provide a credit line as a result of Lymphoseek approval, where do you think they are going to get the money to back up the credit line? Does it not make sense to hold enough cheap shares to be able to sell on news of a milestone to be able to provide the necessary liquidity to back up the looming credit line?

    5. The selling will not continue forever. When in the depths of despair because a stock is going down, that is the time to buy. When you are giddy from rising prices, that is the time to sell. It would appear many posters here do not understand the buy low sell high strategy.

    6. This stock was trading below $2 not long ago. Some investors probably held their shares looking for a run up to FDA approval for Lympho. Now, they are selling , because they are intelligent and have made quite a bundle on this stock. Sure there is more to be made, but intelligent investors take profits.

    7. Think!

    8. Quit crying about things you obviously do not understand and post about the positives.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • b1795c0f6c52a57539083c85ac74fe4e b1795c0f6c52a57539083c85ac74fe4e Mar 14, 2013 3:26 PM Flag

      Maybe you're right exdivy I'm not sure what is going on here. I will say that I would think Montaur could come up with a better way to sell shares though. Not the brightest move to just dump shares like crazy, no matter your cost basis, leaving millions on the table.
      Of course someone else, who agrees with you, is of the belief that they are dumping shares (losing millions in profits) so that NAVB will then be force to exercise some of the credit line so they can lock in a 10% return.
      I guess it really doesn't matter in the long run why it's going down as long as the reason isn't something fundamental. My only regret is that I don't have any more dry powder to buy more. I still think NAVB is a screaming buy here and is a good hold for many years to come.

      • 1 Reply to b1795c0f6c52a57539083c85ac74fe4e
      • b1795c0f6c52a57539083c85ac74fe4e,

        "Not the brightest move to just dump shares like crazy, no matter your cost basis, leaving millions on the table."

        Montaur has cheap stock. They also are not in the business of speculating. If the milestone occurs and a contract calls for a credit line, you have to have the money to back it up. What better time to sell than "on the news?"

        What if Montaur waited and NAVB did want the credit line at the same time that some big investor decided to dump shares? The news would be over, the stock at $5, and shorts ready to climb on board again. With few buyers, a big seller, and renewed short interest, the stock would fall like a knife through hot butter. Sure, Montaur would get a Million shares sold for more than $3, but the rest would have to be sold for far less. At this point the big investor who dumped could buy back shares from Montaur, who would have to sell for pennies as the shorting continued.

        I think from Montaur's perspective "selling on the news" is the only reasonable thing to do. They are virtually guaranteed buyers, because of smart money buying and shorts having to cover.

        Anyway, that is the way I see it.

        I appreciate you and the rest of the "thinking" investors who have posted to this link.

        Good luck with your investment!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • PM reported holding 10.7 mm shares in Feb. Close to 14 mm shares have traded in last two days. The big block trades appear to have run anywhere from around 150,000 shares to over 350,000 shares at various times so someone like PM was selling, but someone was also buying those big blocks

    • Exdivy: iwin and myself unsuccessfully tried to address/communicate your postulation relative to P.M. last august 2012 and were exscoriated for it on this mb; as techread can attest to(if he chooses). it once again proves(inmho) timing is everything in addition to the message being conveyed more skillfully and clearly as you have successfully done in this post. Hear, Hear! applies to you as well TECHREAD.

      • 2 Replies to palantir777
      • aww shucks :) .... cut/paste from notes I keep.....FWIW some historical perspective:

        June/July - short interest rises with SP
        July 23 - SP hits 4.77 (seven weeks ahead of PDUFA)
        July 25 - P/M converts 6.5M shares
        July 26 - Sell volume surges (noting the infamous mystery 5M block)
        July 26 - new 50M credit facility with P/M established
        Price declines 20%
        July 31 - P/M converts 3.5M shares
        August 1 - sell volume surges (bear raid to 2.78)
        Short interest then drops 3M shares
        August-Dec - shares continue to be sold off from shares on hand and conversions
        Dec - auto conversion deadline extended one year and surplus shares on hand reverse converted. P/M discontinues 10% owner reporting
        Dec 31 - offering from the shelf filed at 2.78
        Dec 31 - P/M waives blocker limit on 61 day notice
        Jan/Feb - short interest again rises with SP
        Feb 18 - P/M disclaims beneficial ownership among all parties, discloses derivatives
        March 1 - P/M converts 3.5M shares (speculation they were arbitraged)
        March 7-12 - P/M conversions (if any) not yet disclosed
        March 13 - new volume record and "unexplained selling" pressure drops SP

        JMHO and possible contributor to the selling; recent hedging, and short swingers who follow.

      • Palantir - I still believe that whoever drove Exdivy away owes him some apologies. He saw what Montaur was doing 2-3 years ago and he was labeled here as basher. Montaur been selling shares in the backdoor as he pointed out.

        Montaur will continue to sell and stick to their holding below 10% as that is their advantage for being a Hedgefunds. Who in the right mind to pre-announce their sell orders of 10 million shares?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • TD ameritrade and Etrade confirm there are no shares available for shorting!
      Retail is panicked when price dropped and are running away. Hold your shares

      Sentiment: Buy

    • exdivy...that is one theory which is what it is until you can prove what you say through facts. Shorts are at work but soon will run out of steam. I will keep an open mind about what you are saying, though.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • This is the post i've been waiting to see. Finally, someone with some damnnn common sense. All this nonsense from people who are completely clueless, whining and crying and sounding absolutely pathetic. Platinum M is behind this sp suppression and anyone with a little bit of investing knowledge knows that. They have NAVB management team in agreement with a $50M credit line with, wait for it.....10% rate of return. Gauranteed return as long as NAVB still needs to raise money for operations or conduct business. By keeping the price suppressed, it discourages management from considering a share offering and allows PM to wave that 10% interest credit line out there that everyone keeps screaming out their (a)(s)(s) about. They're also raising the funds to support the credit line by dumping shares into approval news as exdivy so kindly pointed out to you silly people. Thanks exdivy, you renewed my faith in the common sense retail investor. GL to true NAVB longs.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Bingo!!

      to add...Montaur already had the credit line funded - it was annouced the same week they sold 10M shares last summer

      ps - uptick rule in effect until close today. tomorrow it will take another 10% drop to trigger it again. It stay in effect from the time it triggers until close the following day. BOL

    • One of the shorts on twitter says the uptick rule is in effect, so there isn't a lot of shorting today, especially in the last two or three hours. Just reporting what I read. Anyone know if that's correct?

    • Exdivy - You are rising from the ashes like the NEOP/NAVB. How you been?

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