Nice spike run in the NG stocks...short covering and spec buying feeding on each other. The cause is Japan and ME crisis. I'll be waiting for evidence of the stocks' momentum to wind down (RRC, HK, SWN, UPL) to short. I'm still short KWK. I'm long several oil centric and service names FWIW. I think there is a psychological peak now created by short covering, spec, recent surge in cold weather, Japan and ME crisis.
Here was a resonse recently to one of my posts: "You seem to be intent on a secular bet that no one will use this cheap, plentiful energy, regardless of the fact that has never happened in this country."
Reread what I've posted for my reasoning. I completely believe that NG will increasing be the dominant energy source over all others in the decades ahead. That doesn't mean NG prices will go up or NG exploration companies stocks will perform well. Doesn't anyoner remember oil from the mid 80s to 1990s? MANY DISCOVERIES WERE MADE GLOBALLY AND CHEAP OIL WAS PRESENT FOR YEARS. We are seeing the same thing in GLOBAL NG. Shale NG is globally ubiquitous and cheap and easy to produce. There are thousands of TCF..perhaps millions of TCF resources globally. Do people understand the economics of a now plentiful commodity? The price will generally gravitate on a long-term basis toward (just above) the cost of production.
Right now supply still exceeds demand and supply is growing faster than demand for NG. The stocks (NG primary) are priced for 6++ NG. It's pretty simply, actually.
"Range Resources (RRC) is trading at $58.79 today. RRC is a oil and gas company, based in Texas. These shares have traded in a range between $32.25 to $59.43 in the past 52 weeks. The 50 day moving average is $51.27 and the 200 day moving average is $42.75. Since RRC shares are currently trading well over the 50 and 200 day moving averages, and close to the 52 week high, they could be due for a correction. Earnings estimates for RRC are just $1.01 per share in 2011, so the PE ratio is over 50. The book value is about $13.06. These shares appear extremely overvalued on every metric. RRC pays a small dividend of 16 cents per share which gives a yield of only .3%. These shares looked priced beyond perfection and I would sell, sell, sell ..."