The only thing that matters is Yahoo's stock price when all of the parties finally resolve the multiple issues and come to an agreement.
Meanwhile no one factor, but multiple factors will dictate how the "story" comes to fruition.
It is impossible for any one person to predict the outcome based on the knowledge they possess. I'm sure that the ever changing myriad of circumstances that present themselves, are not even predictable by the insiders of either negotiating party.
Yes, right now the consensus creating the stock price is predicting a negative outcome for Yahoo, but this can drastically change when one least expects it.