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Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) Message Board

  • brainless_2004 brainless_2004 Dec 19, 2012 7:46 PM Flag

    My Ignorant Forecast

    If Yhoo follow the same pattern as in Nov. on Friday it will close in ~$19.65 and on Monday it will close about $20.20. What do you think?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • It seems it will be lower than expected. And Fiscal Cliff uncertainty will play a little havoc for a while. Just temporary noise. It will make it the stock less fragile.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Whoa - what did I miss? Anyone see the futures?

    • You thinking max pain on options? There's 28K open interest on the 19's and only 16K on the 20's. I don't think there's enough open interest on the 20's relative to the trading volume to keep the price sub-$20. But I could be wrong.

      What do you think about the increase in Capital Gains taxes that will kick in on Jan 1? Regardless of the solution that our disfunctional politicians come up with, that will be in there. I have been expecting people to sell their winners to lock in the lower tax rate (I did), but that hasn't seemed to happen. Thoughts?

    • Of greater concern is this......

      The last several 35% rallies were followed by $2-$3 declines. In addition, the last 5 times we were this far away from the 200 day moving average were in July 2009, Feb 2008, Oct 2007, Apr 2007, and Feb 2007. All 5 were followed by at least a 10% correction. And yes all 5 were massive runups. 3 of them even coincided with a 35% gain.

      So I wouldn't worry so much about whether its going to $20 but rather is it going to $17-$18 first?

      It's come a long way in a very short period of time. Correction time might just be around the corner.
      I'm not saying its all over....not at all....but do not be surprised and have a plan in place if a correction does occur.


      • 4 Replies to wbobeli
      • Good analysis.

      • I do not foresee correction on YHOO in the near-term. First argument is that YHOO uptrend movements is very, very very gradual. Plus going forward YHOO has many positive issues that protect from the downside such as amticipated upcoming Alibaba IPO probably mid next year with possible announcement in 1Q and possible bigtime surprise news of YHOO and YHOO Japan deal. In addition, small positive news such as signed partnership, Flickr major revamped improvements and continuation of shares buyback from previous share buyback program are helping YHOO to sustain his upward movements. In fairness to your comments, I see a "minor" share correction if YHOO didnot meet analysts consensus estimates for their 4Q report next month. However, I expect YHOO to beat analysts revenue and earnings estimates.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I am more inclined to believe that YHOO will pull back to $16 in the next month or so. Decreasing volume and a .50 cent gap up from $15.77 that needs to be backfilled. It also appears that YHOO will not pay a special dividend. Now as far as a stock buyback. YHOO would be crazy to buy back stock now. I believe that they are waiting for the price to drop.


      • If the stock was fully traded technically I would agree. But when was the last .time that even a tweet of Yhoo CEO caused media attention? Wall Street wants MM to succeed. They want to believe their own narrative.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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