Today's chart formation is not very good. As a matter of fact it paints a rather dismal picture over the next 8-10 trading sessions. We not only made a higher high than yesterday and a lower low than yesterday but we made higher highs than the last 7 trading days and a lower low than the last 7 trading days. In other words, todays' trading range totally engulfs the last seven days. Pull out your chart and take a look at the last several times a trading range has engulfed the previous 3-7 trading days to the downside. The minimum move to the downside after such an occurance has been $1 to as much as $2.50. Several of the past occurances were a very large percentage move even though it was only down $1.50.
Why you say could this happen again? Well, anyone that bought it in the last eight days are under water. And those that are long from lower levels are now concerned about the stength at the open and subsequent decline. The buying we have seen over the last several weeks will subside and the sellers will look to take profits in competition with those that bought at higher levels.
So although the bull trend is still intact, here comes a correction that will be very swift, similiar to the swiftness of the rally we have seen. A drop below $18 to $17.50-$17.75 could and probably will come by the end of the week or early next. Its just the weak longs getting shook from the tree. But buying at these levels is a grave mistake.
Please dont shoot the messanger here. I'm just telling you what I see. Jack Ma, IPO, buyback, and whatever else you want to throw out there is already known by the market. For some reason it gave it all up today. I would not fight it. Wait for lower levels.....I'm sure those in charge of the buyback will!!