Be careful, that assumption hurt many at the last report which was well over expectations. The market didn’t care which is bad since the market is always right.
Until the market cares about Enphase, there will be selling pressure. And it doesn't take much pressure to drive this stock down since daily volumes are still low.
Just looking at the chart gives every reason to avoid investing. Until it begins consolidating, everything about this chart says wait. Although volumes picked up a bit when it dropped below $4, there really hasn’t been a significant buy volume event yet.
There was no insider selling after lockup as predicted by many. Not one sell was filed with SEC. The market didn’t care.
So what are the main sources of selling pressure?
-This could be someone like Loeb hedging his long shares with a short position.
-It could be genuine selling by funds. We’ll know soon as the new major-holdings figures come out showing July through Sept changes in major holders.
-It could be a net increase in short interest. We will also know that soon as the new short interest figures are due imminently.
Meanwhile, do yourself a favor and wait for some consolidation and a few green volume bars.