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OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • michaelhanderson22 michaelhanderson22 May 22, 2009 6:27 AM Flag

    The peak sale for OGX-11 is only $130M

    After cost and royalty sharing with ISIS, it won't leave too much for OGXI shareholders.

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    • Guys,

      Lets slow it down for an minute because many people are making completely wrong assumptions at this point.

      Taxotere (docetaxel) is typically used in FIVE different tumor types namely Head/Neck, breast, lung, prostate and gastric cancers so please do not in any way use the sales of taxotere as being any metric for the sales of OXG-011 at this point.

      OXG-011 is going forward in the treatment for refractory prostrate patients at this point.

      While I hope OXG-011 will turn out to be an viable product, lets just take it one day at a time.

      Good Luck

      p.s. While I'm impressed with the lung data, oxg doesn't beat anything at this point without an comparative arm.

    • Guys,

      Lets slow it down for an minute because many people are making completely wrong assumptions at this point.

      Taxotere (docetaxel) is typically used in FIVE different tumor types namely Head/Neck, breast, lung, prostate and gastric cancers so please do not in any way use the sales of taxotere as being any metric for the sales of OXG-011 at this point.

      OXG-011 is going forward in the treatment for refractory prostrate patients at this point.

      While I hope OXG-011 will turn out to be an viable product, lets just take it one day at a time.

      Good Luck

      p.s. While I'm impressed with the lung data, oxg doesn't beat anything at this point with an comparative arm.

    • That is a very good point. Onco clearly has some strong Phase II traction with OXG-011 in the HRPC indication (prostate) and also very good numbers with its Phase II small cell lung cancer trial. That trial also has 81 patients and the drug (OXG-011) is outperforming the others in trial or use.

      Since Onco's drug for HRPC is used in combination with taxotere which has global sales of i beleive 3.4 billion, it is a safe assumption to conclude that OXG-011 will have robust sales. In fact, it has been argued by analysts that taxotere sales may increase given the significant boost OXG-011 gives to prostate patients suffering from HRPC.

    • AACR chosen highlights, not mine:

      The Molecular Role of Clusterin in Apoptosis

      Secretory clusterin (sCLU) exerts pro-survival activity against most cancer therapies. To explore its molecular function, Trougakos and colleagues designed novel siRNAs targeting sCLU. siRNA-mediated depletion of sCLU in human cancer cells triggered p53-dependent G1-S growth retardation and increased mitochondrial apoptosis. Increased apoptosis was correlated with altered ratios of Bcl-2 protein family members. Also, sCLU was found to stabilize the cytoplasmic Ku70-Bax protein complex, demonstrating that sCLU serves as a cytosol retention factor for Bax. These findings provide novel insight into the molecular function of sCLU and provide further evidence that sCLU is a potential molecular target for tumor therapy.

      http://www.aacr.org/home/scientists/publications-of-the-aacr/highlights-ccr/january-1-2009-highlights-ccr.aspx


      "most cancer therapies"

      This review comes from highly respected specialist in their field.

    • A lot of people are giving sales estimates that are based on only one indication, and only on U.S. sales. Consider that this drug can quite possibly be used for several cancers and that sales outside the U.S. may match the U.S. value, and you can get much higher numbers.

    • When you make the top gainers on the stock list a few days in a row people start noticing.

    • Blockbuster potential, nobody should be in this without doing some serious personal due diligence. I have no desire to pump it as some people are actually looking at this as an investment. That would be those focused on market cap and not the share price.

      Would love to see a pancreatic cancer trial starting up soon. Fast killer that is quick to show resistance to any chemo.

      We are all playing with money here. ((IF)) this one holds up in trials there are a lot of patients with failing therapies that will be a lot happier hearing the news. End stage cancer that shows abnormally high levels of clusterin in the blood, I would be first in line for a coming trial.
      A series of phase II trials will give us an early idea how widespread this one will be used.

    • If the peak sale is $130M, the average sale will be $100M.
      After 30% cost, it's only $70M profit.
      Potential partner will pay 4x annnual profit, that is $280M.
      Consider the drug is still in phase II, I think today's market cap ($97M) is fair.

      Hope someone can correct me.

    • What do you mean by your term "peak sale". That's an term I'm not familar with when you include cost structures.


      Do you mean Peak Sales as in product sales? If so why are you reducing Sales by commisions?

      Do you mean Profits instead of Sales?

      TIA

    • Just keep saying that until it hits $100 maybe $160.

      I guess amateurs never see the true value of any stock.

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