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OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • sharesaplenty sharesaplenty Dec 14, 2009 6:13 PM Flag

    Seen this before

    Notice that we are down approx. 10% since first of the month and short interest is on the increase.

    I expect that the bleed off of 0.30-0.50/day will continue from here, putting us in the mid 20s early Jan.

    The reality is that a micro-cap company with PII data and shopping for a partner should NOT take eight months to do a deal.

    Each day that goes by increases odds of either no deal or one on disappointing terms, either which will end up cutting the share price in half or more. Bash me all you like, but I have seen this too many times before.

    In situations like the past in the past, I saw no other option that to begin selling shares slowly as my self imposed deadline approached in order to reduce risk. At the current rate, I will be 100% out by mid Jan.

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    • I never posted here before even though I own shares for a while.

      I don't think he is a short seller. I have seen his postings from seveval biotech boards I posted before. I don't think simple trust management explanation would do for him and me as well.

      I'd agree the deal is taking a long time. Let me offer why the deal might take longer than similar deals in the past: one is 011 is kind of adjuvant used in combination with chemo, second OGXI doesn't own the full rights to 011. Due to these two factors, it might be possible the values assigned to 011 are quite different between OGXI and potential partners.

    • Thanks Mr_sssssssssss.....i do recall now and i appreciate those links and passages. I now remember the CEO discussing it at a conference. Its no longer saved as a webcast, but it was the one where the entire time was devoted to Q&A by the host. It was a very memorable discussion now that i think about it because Jerry went into a great deal of detail about the other applications for OgX-011. It was also at this event where he discussed there were two firms in particular that were at the competitive stage of the negotatiations. It stands out in my mind because it was such an engaging discussion and it was clear that Onco was going to stay firm on their expectation that the prospective partner be engaged in supporting developement of OGX-011 across multiple applications.

      Sometimes we get so busy with analyzing other biotech "plays", we forget some of the texture. Thanks for reminding me.

    • Here's a better link to the 10-K:

      http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949858/000136231009003566/c82250e10vk.htm

      Seems the other one no longer works.

    • ""Trust me I have been playing this game a looong time" Shares aplenty I believe the second part of your posting in that you are playing a game but forgive me if I do not trust you. I believe that you are short and would like to cover and your attempt attempt to telegraph your trading strategy to board members laughable. NO professional money manager would post his trading strategy in an illiquid stock to the world on a bulletin board. Options Are expiring on Friday a decent number of calls are in the money which are written short I suspect that someone would be happy if this stock closed under 30 on Friday. Someone is daily buying insurance or betting the stock is going up big time by Jan expiration as evidenced in the 100 Jan 50 options that traded yesterday. I suspect the MOST nervous investors today are the individuals short 550,000 shares of an illiquid bio-tech on the verge of a tranformative deal.

    • I've invested in a lot of biotechs and although you make valid points, I think you are wrong on this one. The main reason is market cap. MDVN had a little selloff after announcing their deal and now the stock is up 50% since the announcement. If this company with a market cap of 186M drops on a deal paying it 200M upfront? wtf? I do agree that a horrible deal would drop the stock but look at Dendreon with a market cap of $3B. More than 15 times our market cap. Cancer is costing big pharma a hefty premium. You can't compare it to TRGT. There might be some sell the news because they didn't get purchased, but I bet this goes higher on a $200M upfront or more. I just have a feeling that this one is taking longer for all the right reasons. Let me know how much you are out now and when you are completely out so I know whether to give your warnings any cred in the future. Thanks.

      • 1 Reply to jmetzy777
      • Story is intact. Buyout/partnership on track. I don't think we should take discouraging stock action as indicative of anything fundamental. Company met with RBC last week and their analyst would have changed his rating if there were material changes. We are in a quiet period due the negotiations.

        Stock is down because Patrick Brady and his hedge fund are selling their 400,000 shares. For some reason he is pissed and he has quit the board. And he taking his baseball and going home.

        The problem is that the stock doesn't have enough volume for him to quietly/quickly sell the block. So he is selling everyday putting a large block out that keeps anyone from chasing it up.

        Short interest is increasing as people sell calls to hedge downward movement in stock. Has nothing to do with "shorts attacking."

        This presents us with a great opportunity to buy shares.

    • With 6 million shares outstanding, opening "in the teens" would mean opening with a market cap of between $78 and $114 million. For a company entering 2 phase 3 trials in hormone refractory prostate cancer, probably moving towards a phase 3 in NSCLC, and possibly moving towards a phase 3 in hormone ablation therapy, and with a second product (OGX-427) in a phase 1 trial as a single agent treatment for bladder cancer, that's a little hard to believe. Not just Cormack but everyone else in management and the board presumably has the scoop on what's going on with the partnership talks, and though all of them hold lots of options none have converted any or sold a single share since OGXI went public over a year ago. You'd think if they thought the stock was headed into the teens they might have made a few "planned sales," which given how most biotechs are run these days wouldn't have raised an eyebrow. In addition, judging from the paltry trading volume in recent weeks, none of the big holders is very concerned about the potential timeline slippage.

    • Why worry? Because if a partnership on weak terms is announced tonight, it will open in the teens tomorrow, hence there will be no time to "chat about the terms" after an announcement.

      One has to lay out their strategy in advance of events, not after the fact.

    • Shares:

      Then I agree with you. Timing is not important. The terms of the deal are. We can have a good chat about how good the terms are when partnering is announced. For now, why worry? Let the young guy Cormack do his job.

    • We are in agreement that it "will happen", but that's not the issue.

      Getting a deal done in itself will not necessarily add value if the terms are weak.

      As I said: longer time = greater chance of weaker terms = a cratering share price that won't recover until PIII is complete in 12-18 months.

      Trust me, I've been playing this game a looong time.

    • Let me add this projection:

      If the deal goes into Jan, odds are it will be weak terms, probably something like $25 mill upfront and loaded more heavily on milestones.

      And if anything even close to that happens, the share price will fall to the teens instantly. I think even a $50 mill upfront will disappoint and cause a selloff.

      The market will interpret those kinds of terms as a lack of confidence in the drug's prospects and will take a "sell, its dead money until PIII data is out, so wait and see" attitude.

 
OGXI
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