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OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • jbog2001 jbog2001 Oct 13, 2010 8:30 AM Flag

    Caution

    While I'm extremely pleased with the recent run on OGXI, I do have to mention that two of my other Bio's did the same thing recently only then to get crushed by issuing more stock. Check the onty charts recently.

    Good Luck

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    • Caution is always good and anything can happen, but Cormack has repeatedly stressed in recent investor CCs that OGXI has enough cash to last until mid-2012. So I doubt they'll do a financing until at least mid-2011. By then, the P3 trial of OGX-011 in lung cancer should have started and the P3 trials in prostate for both O11 and OGX-427 will be further along. Also, they may have closed a partnership deal for 427, which they've said they're looking to do.
      All of that will hopefully translate to a higher pps.

      There are a couple of other ways they might be able to raise more cash, and extend their financial runway. One is by succeeding in their stated intention to outlicense SN-2310, the Sonus legacy that is a variant of the chemo drug Irinotecan. Sonus did a non-randomized P1 trial that produced a good side effect profile but few signs of efficacy. That may or may not be due to the fact that the handful of patients involved had all failed numerous therapies including Irinotecan, and that Irinotecan itself normally produces only around a 15% response rate in patients who are less sick. Irinotecan is a $1 billion drug so someone may want to take a chance on it, but I wouldn't expect a huge upfront payment.

      Another possibility, which is more of a longshot, would be that OGXI would get one of those $5mm grants the federal government is awarding to selected biotechs on or before October 29. Since the govt has allocated only $1 billion altogether, that means there will be 200 grants and I've read that there are over 2,000 applicants. Also, although OGXI was technically acquired by Sonus in the 2008 reverse merger and is therefore a US company that's incorporated in Delaware, and it has a headquarters in Bothell, WA, it has done most of its work in Canada and is widely perceived as a Canadian company. Since the grant program is being sold as a US jobs-creation booster, that might disqualify OGXI, if it even applied.

      • 2 Replies to mr_ssssamsa
      • I tip my hat to jbog and apologize to the two people who rated my post. Unless of course they gave it a low rating, in which case I guess I should congratulate them.

        As summer has pointed out, all four analysts who cover the stock are involved in this offering. Given the seeming lack of urgency to raise funds, I almost wonder whether the analysts put a gun to Cormack's head and said "Feed us! We need fees! We are not covering you out of civic-mindedness and will stop if you don't issue stock (and warrants!). If we do that, the pps will languish at 12 for years." Hopefully they are sated now and won't demand another meal for quite awhile.

        Oh well, at least now OGXI will presumably have the funds to initiate several P2 trials for OGX-427 and even, if they're so inclined, SN2310. Otherwise, what is the point? Presumably Cormack will talk about what they plan to do with the money during the Q3 CC, which should be only a few weeks away.

      • Sorry, in the first paragraph I meant to say the P2 (but randomized), not P3, trial for OGX-427 in prostate cancer would be further along by mid-2011.

        A little brain cramp.

    • looks like the run has run out of juice @$20

      consolidation is the next step


      box

 
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