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OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • howardmorris howardmorris Jul 19, 2011 8:28 AM Flag

    ARIAD MKT CAP = $1.68B

    I've been trading around in OGXI between $21 and $38 so I'm not feeling as amiable as I was this time last year. Still, aren't we just 'drilling holes' looking for oil? I used to play a little poker and loved the feeling of going 'all in' with a strong hand...but 4 Aces can still get beat, right? Even if -011's PII results equal 4 Aces, couldn't the PIII trials still cause an early exit from the main event?

    I like everything I've seen so far, but I'm not yet ready to go 'all in.' Competition doesn't scare me, but ANS still does (even with Gen 1.5/2.0). Are you guys just playing with a big stack of chips or is there some compelling reason (other than relative valuation) to make this a monster hand?

    Thanks,
    Howard

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    • Hi Howard, my view is that 011 approval will validate the drugs in pipeline (011 in lung; 427 in multiple indicators) and likely result in purchase of company.

      What is that worth compared to today's value? Don't know.

      I've been lucky buying in although a small portion of my purchases are 20-26 pps; bu adding at this level on a small scale makes sense to me.

      • 1 Reply to dr.kuvasz
      • Thanks, Dr. K. Can you help me see the potentiality of a purchase/buyout/LBO/takeover that is accretive? It seems to me that EVERY step Cormack has made to date (since SNUS), including and especially the partnership with TEVA, mitigates against selling the company. He acts like he's trying to build a global powerhouse; if -011 and 427, et al, are efficacious in multiple indications he may do just exactly that. Partnering with ISIS and TEVA appear to be hedges against the need to sell the company just to provide continuing operating capital...

        Anyway, I know it looks like I'm rambling because it sure FEELS like I'm rambling...

        Box, feel free to provide instruction where I'm missing the obvious.
        Thanks,
        Howard

 
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