Lot of short selling in CHTP since the adcom meeting -- it's keeping the price down, but I don't think for much longer. Crazy story -- an inexperienced naive Dr wrote a terrible briefing document about how unsafe the drug is and how poorly the SPA study design was and that she did not recommend approval...this is all in the briefing document for the adcom (which caused stock price to tank). At the meeting her boss's boss's boss shows up unexpectedly to give his side of the story --which is that the study design was good and the drug is safe enough given the disorder and should be approved. Read the post adcom meeting transcript -- it's worth its weight in gold.
IMO the safest strategy is to start a position now and keep some cash aside in case they get a crl so you can buy more on crl news. I'd think it would be a guaranteed approval before 3/28 if not for the fact that they will have results from another study by June -- FDA may just want to wait for those results before giving the green light.