Interesting dilema. 427 is the superstar drug. don't want to keep it on the sidelines. but personally I don't want to see any further dilution until after 011 tests come out. Maybe phase III test in 427 will coincide with release of 011 data….perfect storm. Maybe not. However, it is interesting situation to have 011 and 427 coming along in so many indicators. Dilution doesn't look so bad if both drugs take off.
I certainly hope that if the share price doesn't go much higher than it is now before the SYNERGY results they won't do a secondary. Their latest 10-Q says they expect the randomized P2 bladder trial for 427 to complete enrollment in the second half of 2013 so they should have data on that one probably a few months after they announce SYNERGY data. If SYNERGY fails but the 427 bladder trial succeeds their market cap should go back up to where it is now, give or take, so they could partner 427 and/or do a secondary then. If both SYNERGY and the bladder trial fail they'll have trouble raising money but you have to wonder in that case if it would even be worth continuing with other 427 trials. I'm sure they'd say yes though which I guess is the argument for doing an offering pre-SYNERGY.
Just listened to Scott Cormack's presentation at Lazard. He emphasized that thanks to the secondary they did last spring, and the fact that after the end of this year Teva will bear all remaining costs of the 011 program (and will therefore reimburse OGXI's costs with regard to that program), their cash will not only last into 2015 but that should cover the completion of several (or multiple -- forget his exact word) P2 trials for 427. That would seem to make it less likely they'll do another financing before the SYNERGY results.
He also said that the 180-patient randomized P2 trial for 427 in metastatic bladder, which should read out in 2014, is designed to resemble a P3, with a survival endpoint, and that -- if I heard correctly -- if the endpoint is achieved they'd probably file for approval. It sounded like he said the hope would be that any required P3 would occur after approval, though I wasn't entirely clear on this point -- need to listen again or read the transcript.
He also mentioned that the cash projection into 2015 doesn't take into account milestones and royalties they'd receive from Teva if SYNERGY succeeds, which would dramatically improve their cash situation and fund additional randomized trials for 427.