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OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • mr_ssssamsa mr_ssssamsa Nov 15, 2012 11:17 PM Flag

    RBC report - Major Catalyst in Sight

    I agree about the doubtfulness of the world surviving -- global slowdown, extreme weather, another Middle East war, etc. -- I wouldn't buy a call option on that. But is RBC saying that if the world does survive and SYNERGY succeeds their price target is only $17? Even if you downplay the market for the indication that would be approved (and $17 strikes me as pretty heavy downplaying), I would think that a success in SYNERGY would create expectations for success in the trial with Jevtana and the lung trial, as well as in other potential trials for 011 Teva might then initiate. It would even make the success of 427, which is another potential multiple-indication drug, more likely. I see a positive SYNERGY outcome as justifying $35+. But obviously the market either doesn't see it that way or has little faith the trial will succeed; otherwise, the pps would be higher than $12 now.

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    • Mr. Ssssamsa, sorry to confuse. the $17 pps remains unchanged. the report discounts for risk of failure or delay of 011 in prostate and lung. The report states that "investors with a long term outlook could benefit from additional upside if OGX-011 proves effective in other indicators". THere are other discounts applied for similar risks in lung and 427.

      From watching DNDN and MDVN, I don't believe anyone has idea of where pps will go in ramp up to release of data on 011 in prostate.

      • 1 Reply to dr.kuvasz
      • $17 target seems absurd unless the probability of success is assumed to be very low. Just NPV of 427 should justify $17.

        I listened to the CC and Lazard presentation. No word about the SYNERGY's interim analysis. It seems like everybody took a vow of silence about it. I am not sure I understand why OGXI or TEVA wants to keep the interim a secret. All other companies talk about it. It's not like this is out of the ordinary.

        Usually the interim is at 50% # of events. The timing of the interim analysis is also usually tied to the condition that the enrollment is complete. When that happens, the sites are informed and data gets collected.

        I also dont understand how the co can keep this a secret. At least one site out of 140 study locations will leak this.

        So I think, maybe, the interim got triggered . And I think at least one of the sites leaked that it got triggered.

        Is that the reason of the sell off? What are the chances that everyone involved in I dont know how many countries will keep this info secret?

    • IMO, this analyst doesn't understand the stock at all. We are going to get 427 (Heat Shock Protein Based) results early next year .... like in February for Postate cancer than mid year or so on Bladder cancer. This drug is unpartnered and has significantly more potential than -011 as it can be targetted towards several forms (ovarian, breast, lung) of solid tumor type cancers. 427 can be a pipeline within a pipeline type of product..

      If -011 Synergy trial is positive $35 PT is in the ballpark with positive P2 427 results.

      box

 
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