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OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • jd9919 jd9919 Feb 20, 2013 2:15 AM Flag

    Whale Watching (13Fs)

    Q4 whale (big fish) activity was released mid-month. Some interesting OGXI activity:

    Jeffrey R Jay (Great Point Partners), the fourth largest OGXI shareholder, increased his OGXI position by 101,383 shares (+14%) and held 822,492 shares as of 12/31/12. Jay's history isn't perfect , but he has a good track record and his credentials are respectable.

    RA Capital Management purchased 370,807 shares in Q4 (+70%) and became OGXI's second largest shareholder with 894,232 shares on 12/31/12. I believe RA's biotech stock picker is Peter Kolchinsky, who has a PhD from Harvard and a good track record, as well.

    As of 12/31/12, OGXI was about 10% of Jay's portfolio and a little more than 4% of that of RA. I'm actually surprised that they'd be buying OGXI ahead of 011 P3 news (which I think will be disappointing), but their timing certainly suggests it.

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    • I like the fact that these funds have increased their positions. They have a ton of technical resources to go to and get meaningful analysis on -011 trials.

      So when in doubt buy out of the money January 2014 PUT Options in late Q3 to be at least partially protected on -011 P3 failure.in Q4/13.

      box

    • jd, I've only been doing this for a few years (6?) and I'm more of a gambler than investor. I put a lot of resources into understanding SNUS and trying to glean anecdotal info from their various trials and company disclosures. We even stumbled on a blog that was meant for SNUS trial patients (only?) and was just fooled enough to take a slightly larger position (2x) than I normally would have. If I recall correctly, SNUS' last P3 missed statistical significance by 1%. (That stings a little even years after the fact, lol)

      You opine, "I'm actually surprised that they'd be buying OGXI ahead of 011 P3 news (which I think will be disappointing)," Since we already have encouraging news about overall efficacy of ANS 2nd generation (or 1.5) I am curious as to the source of your pessimism. I own a piece of OGXI and am encouraged by recent events that did not occur in anyone's bedroom (surely company execs don't shag in the broom closet...). Can you provide a little color concering your comment?
      Thanks,
      Howard

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to howardmorris
      • Howard, it is always good to see you posting .

        I was going to ask the same question (not where company execs shag though…)

        Why the pessimism about reading out of 011 Phase III results? I have been invested in OGXI since 2001 and this year presents excitement like no other…like a 16 year old boy on his first date.

        Either O11 is approved (positive news) or not (dismal if not apocalyptical). Is there something in between (like the girl on the date saying she is only your friend?)

        If 011 disappoints, then long term investors like me will have to suffer severe shagging...

 
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