BioTuesdays - OncoGenex’s OGX-427 drug gaining investor attention
March 26, 2013 by leonardzehr · Leave a Comment
Even though OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:OGXI) and its pivotal programs with lead oncology candidate, custirsen, are being closely followed, investors are beginning to notice the company’s second generation antisense drug, OGX-427.
“We have data in bladder and prostate cancer with OGX-427 that, we believe, indicates clinical activity,” co-founder, president and CEO, Scott Cormack, says in an interview with BioTuesdays. “This has engaged our interest, even more so than at the beginning of the program. As a result, we have diversified our clinical program to go into other indications in order to explore the potential of the drug.”
He points out, “Quite a few investors have come into the story, not only because of custirsen, but also with a keen interest in OGX-427.”........
See BioTuesdays site for rest of article
Oh! One more thing...I'm about to increase my position in OGXI by 25% unless you guys and Summer talk me out of it. I will be gambling that volume will drive the price up before results are reported...I'll sell my new stake on a 20-25% runup.
Good luck (your comments are most welcome, lol)
25% is a significant vote of confidence. If 011 does not meet its P3 endpoints, your newly bought shares will get much cheaper, and, IMO, not even 427 will be able to buoy the stock price, An 011 failure would be construed by antisense critics as validation that the technology does not work in vivo - I can hear darkout already - and a lower share price would reflect both the removal of 011 as a potential revenue source as well as heightened concerns about the rest of OGXI's pipeline. How low could the stock price go? I have no idea, but on a thinly traded stock like this, it wouldn't take much for manipulators to cut the price in half or more. It has been mentioned on this board that all you need to do to hedge a long position is to buy puts in Q4, but that assumes that this stock and its derivatives will be trading heavily enough by then for put buying to be cost-effective. If there isn't a sufficient uptick in volume and price, buying puts could get very expensive very fast, and not a worthwhile hedging strategy. Since you're considering buying now and won't know until much later whether or not the puts you want will be affordable, you might be putting (no pun intended) the cart before the horse by buying shares now with the expectation of later hedging them with options. Same argument applies to flipping.
For the record, I'm long but have not been adding on the dips for two reasons: (1) I don't have enough confidence in 011's P2 results to make a bigger bet on a P3 outcome, and (2) my confidence in management was shaken by the terms of Burris's s severance agreement. However. I may add if an 011 failure tanks the stock since I have yet to hear a short thesis about 427 that holds water, IMO.
Thanks for highlighting this resource which, for me, seems to be an excellent source for what's happening in the biotech/health research genre. Even though the video is from ASCO 2012 I have yet to see anything so well presented on OGX-427 and HSP27.
Howard while this was a well written report and it does outline the good things going on with OGXI it is a site that is publishing company promotion whole with no on the other hand analysis what so ever. Some one bought 1700 OCT 10 puts last week @ 90cents so at least one investor thinks that a run up is not likely. It will not take a lot of dough to move this thing one way or the other. Keep your eye on the Russell rebalancing as this can cause pretty large price swings and OXGI is a little closer to the cut off than they were. Hedgies have been known to short names close to the edge and then lean on the price to push them over and then cover on the annual rebalance it is a pretty profitable trade if u can pull it off.