keltus1952 hit the nail on the head when he focused on "Trial participants living longer." This also caught my eye. Obviously, in a double-blind study, no-one knows which of the patients (experimental vs. control) are the ones living longer; but the fact is that overall the life of this particular sample (which includes the experimental group) is lengthened so much that there are substantial delays in getting to the end-point of the study and opening up the results for examination.
I do have considerable background in experimental work and statistics and this simple fact really jumped out at me. Obviously, during the CC, management could not appear to be drawing any conclusions from the fact that participants are living longer. But, at some point, it should be possible to do some statistical analyses (even without opening up the trial data of the experimental vs. control group) and calculate the probability of the entire group of participants' longevity as compared to the longevity of similar patients not in the present trial. If, for example, normally, the median life span of comparable patients is, let us say, 10 months, and the median life span for ALL patients in the present trial at the present time is 13 or 14 months, there should be a way to show statistically, that this is a very improbable event and can only be attributed to the fact that the experimental group is living longer.
I am sure management is aware of this and will have some analyses done to verify efficacy of the treatment.
By the way, did you folks notice that this longevity issue was brought up very early on in the CC? This is yet another sign that management thinks it is an extremely important fact and have been preoccupied with it and have been trying to figure out what is happening.
I think we, as investors, are sitting on a rocket!
OK folks, I just want to remind you of my previous post on August 9 (trial participants living longer) in the context of the surprise up-move of 45 cents in OGXI today. Certainly, the broader market action had little bearing on this move; so, ask yourselves, "What possibly could have caused such a move?"
I know people on this board are preoccupied with the Feuerstein rule, but clearly there are other aspects of this investment worthy of consideration on this board.
Is it bad or good (from an investment view) that the trial participants are living longer? If the Ph III control group is living significantly longer than the Ph II control group did, wouldn't that raise the hurdle for 011? On the other hand, it could be that 011 is extending the Ph III survival times - I hope so - but, on the conference call, management cautioned against drawing that inference. So, is anyone buying or selling based on anything but speculation?