No bad news at all in today's call, though that still leaves unanswered the mystery of why the stock price has been nosediving. We now know it's not:
1. Due to failure of the interim, since it hasn't occurred yet. I was sure it had and, based on the stock activity, had failed. Scott said they'll announce results from it either way. While he cautioned that the threshold for success is higher than in the final, he didn't dismiss the possibility of a favorable early end to the trial as he sometimes has in the past. Not sure if that means anything.
2. Due to Teva bailing -- he said Teva is still moving ahead with all the trials and preparations for possible NDA filings next year.
3. Due to OGXI's drawing on the "ATM" that allows them to issue more stock from time to time -- they haven't done it so far.
4. Due, most likely, to the development of new prostate cancer drugs, since time to survival following chemo hasn't changed much in years. Investor perception regarding the future of chemo and its impact on 011 may be different though.
So what is it? No idea at all. But I do feel better.
What we don't know is who knows more than we do. Hedge funds have gotten information from doctors prior to public disclosure before. Even if that informaiton is partial, it could be of some value. Otherwise, no matter how sophisticated you are or your models are, you are just plain guessing. I have seen all this before, as have many of you. I admit that I read it for the same reason you read it - you hope you can gain some insight or advantage. But you can't.
I think the approval of Zytiga and Xtandi in the prechemo space is what has pressured the stock downwards. Patients used to get Z/X after chemo but now they get it before. Question is how will prechemo Z/X affect Tax use on those failures? Will more patients give up then or will they still go to chemo.
Even though 1 thru 4 may not (yet?) have occurred, the bears seem to have baked those ingredients into the cake anyway. The market is a forward-looking pricing mechanism, and the price can reflect the occurrence of events even while they remain on the horizon and may never come to pass.. I listened to the cc, but will continue to fret about interim/final results (and leaks), TEVA's involvement, future dilution via ATM, and whether 011 might be crowded out (like Provenge) by newer anti-androgen therapies. I'll add to that list my opinion that there's a substantial amount of manipulation going on. I can't prove it, and I hesitate to mention it because it's such a hackneyed term, but it appears to me that this stock is being vigorously and relentlessly targeted by professionals.
The bad guys are attracted to small bio techs because of their volatility and the binary nature of their price trajectory..They seem to be extremely attracted to the prostate space. If you look at what other stocks are being followed by OXGI followers you see DNDN, FB aapl. These are not Investors
Not as good as you will feel when the stock is trading north of 12. Its when you have that sick feeling in your stomach that you should pull the trigger and buy and when you are feeling giddy with excitement you should sell and the rest of the time you should just play golf or go fishing or sumpin. Remember the vast majority of us are hard wired to do stupid things with money.
I'm tempted to add here but I already have a lot. The positive side of the stock's implosion is that if SYNERGY succeeds there will still be time to buy at a good price, even if the stock immediately gaps up a lot on the news. Maybe the selling has been a conspiracy by the big boys to allow them to do just that. I don't really believe that but still can't think of a good reason for the drop.