Last time, we had about 12 players, and the average of all guesses was extremely close to actual. Seems like we have less to go on this time, but what the heck, let's see what we get. Oh, and abig won.
From another thread, abig said:
"IF I were to guestimate Q4 sales I would say $90k with the assumption that Battelle is being charged the old dish price ($5) if they are being charged full price I would say closer To $165k."
and WTR said:
my guess on sales would be a range between $120-160k for Q4. If I saw that I would be very impressed, 90k is probably more realistic.
For the contest and experiment, I need one number, but feel free to add whatever explanation, range, secondary guess, etc.
So abig - $90k?
WTR - $140k?
I'm going to guess $101k
Last time we had some actual numbers - 12,000 units x $5 - $60k as a basis for our estimate of Q3 sales. We didn't (and still don't) know how that $60k value of the "letter of intent" was translated into "sales."
PDE argued that the $60k worth of "intent" would more likely be actualized over time, as a project progresses. If so, that order made up some portion of $63 reported. If not, that order was all but $3k of Q3 sales - seems unlikely, given multiple references to multiple customers.
Also, Q3 was basically a 5-week period, as the "launch" announcement was toward the end of Q3 on the calendar.
So if the 12k unit sale was not an outlier, and Q4 is almost 3x the time on the calendar, then, maybe 3 x $63k = $189k is not way too optimistic. Ray's in at $200k, so he's right there at 3xQ3 range.
Still looking for PDE and nmbr1 to step up to the plate....
Thanks Coal and itsyours - interesting guesses! Coal, you are very close to the new average (68.5) and itsyours, you are currently the sole modal guess (half higher, half lower, than you).
Will try to make an educated guess from past performance and what we know. Compiling the information:
1. the majority of last quarters sales appear to be from the one customer (third party).
2. We know according to PDE that Bret was filling an order for at least 1 kit on New Years Day which will not be included in last quarter's numbers.
3. We know the company's track record for meeting timelines.
Magic 8 ball says: no report of numbers till June and then $5,000 in sales.
I hope to be very, very wrong.