Thanks for playing, commish. New average is $67K, your guess moves it closer to previous qtr actual.
Let's see how PDE plays it - Bret's working on an order, he indicated additional sales and multiple customers, would be hard to guess much below last quarter if you take Brett's inputs at face value...
BTW - last time, the modal guess was $60k and actual was $63k.
Average with PDE's low-ball was around $58k, without it was around 62k
nmber1 complained about the low n, but if you take an econ class, you know that you can model simple markets with small number of players. NNLX sales estimate is a simple exercise. The figures we have are very reasonable. Additional guesses in good faith won't move the average dramatically.
Actual was in the range of the average, analogous to "met analysts expectations" and pps did not move significantly upon release
Since we have less information this time, we have more chance of "surprise"
My prediction is that if actual reported sales exceed the average prediction by 1 standard deviation or more, we see pps go up.
If actual is short of the average prediction by one standard deviation, we will see pps drop, then stabilize lower, so if eric means 15 cents is "in the toilet" I agree.
and if billy is right on actual sales, WTR I agree with WTR, we're down the drain - die-hards hang on around a dime, hoping for a turn-around.