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Emisphere Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • hoyas012 hoyas012 May 15, 2006 7:20 PM Flag


    Was initiated by ThinkEquity Partners LLC, with a price target of 15, using what they characterize as a "conservative P/E multiple and discount rate" which they say they may need to revisit. Wish I could post a link -- it is a 38-page, well-researched report, with some new nuggets such as data charts from the PROTECT trial and summaries of portions of ThinkEquity's discussions with the lead monitors of the Calcitonin Phase III trials. But it was emailed to me by a friend, and I am not sure there is a link. A few highlights:

    They say NVS will begin a 1,500 patient Phase III in Osteoarthritis in mid to 2H 2006, and a 4,000 patient Phase III Osteoporosis trial in late 2006. They say the former should conclude late '08, and the latter in '09, with interim looks after one year of dosing in each, and with products on the market for both indications by 2010. They are EXTREMELY high on the OA program. There is an approximately 4-page write-up on why they consider this a huge blockbuster program, with detailed analysis of the 2 Phase II trials. They claim to have spoken both with numerous experts as well as with the people who will be running the P III trials in forming their opinions about the promise of both drugs (they think the OP indication will be a blockbuster as well, but are extraordinarily high on the OA indication, which would be first-in-class). They say that in the Phase II trials, absorption via the oral route was 6-7 times higher than it is via the nasal route.

    On Heparin, they say they expect the Company to submit data to FDA by mid to 2H 2006, and agree on a Phase III plan by year end 2006. They believe there is a possibility EMIS could partner this program once that plan is finalized, but that they might carry out the P III trial themselves as well. They are very high on this program as well, which they characterize as one of three potentially blockbuster programs entering pivotal clinical trials. As I said, there is detailed analysis of PROTECT, which I unfortunately do not have the time to get into here.

    On insulin, they state they learn there have been no cases of hypoglycemia and "significant declines" in HbA1c levels. They acknowledge the early stage and blinded nature of the results available, but they think that spontaneous improvement in such a severe patient population that was poorly controlled to begin with their prior oral regimen is unlikely. They think the product will be on the market in 2011 or sooner, and they believe a significant parternship will be forthcoming if the data show statistical significance, and that the program will likely move forward even if there is only a positive trend but no stat. significance, given its great promise. They make a conservative assumption that over time, 40% of the patients in the market would switch to oral insulin.

    They infer that the Eligrn technology works from the fact that, among other things, EMIS not only has strong collaborations with large pharma parterns, but from the fact also that these partners continue to expand their collaborations with EMIS, which they find very impressive.

    It is a whopper of a report. Those interested might consider contacting ThinkEquity to see if they can get a copy. After reading it, I can see why they say throughout that their 15 price target was based on conservative assumptions, and may need to be revisited.

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