Strange how Wall Street work. Everyone is abandoning DOLE now but comes 1 April, people will think the deal closure is something new and will drive the shares much higher. So logic is to load the truck now and wait for 1 April with every business media talks about the new Dole. the new debt free dole. The new acquisition target dole. Just my 50 cents take on this nice opportinity. See you on April 2 when the stock pops.
Short term Target $12.00
agreed that wall st will like the new dole, but I disagree that it will pop April 1st. Everyone that follows the stock knows the deal is as good as done. The reason people aren't diving into Dole right now is because of uncertainty about how the company will emerge when the sale is done. They are selling 20,000 acres of prime Hawaiin realestate but seem to be low balling the estimates of proceeds. Unless realestate prices fall tremendously, that land should get Dole a lot more than the 200,000 million they are claiming. Im thinking more like 400-600 million.
The company also hasn't really cleared up what margins will look like with the packaged foods biz gone. Packaged foods are definitely higher margin products than raw fruit and vegetables. Put some lettuce in a bag with a logo on it and you can suddenly sell it for 3-5 bucks! This has been a fast growing part of Dole's business, so will the company be able to grow with just fresh fruit and vegetables?
My guess is YES!...I don't see the banana market becoming much worse of an environment and if Dole has survived for this long, I'm betting on a recovery. I'm very long Dole right now as I believe this will be trading at 12 by the end of April if not a little higher. However, I'm just stating that the reason people aren't buying Dole right now is because of uncertainty regarding the deal. Once the new Dole fully emerges from the restructuring with a very attractive balance sheet and positive cash flow, Wall St will buy this thing up to 15-20 range.