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  • angelequity angelequity Oct 7, 2002 3:01 PM Flag

    Back of the envelope

    I'm certain GSPN is depressed with sentiment towards the markets overall, fears relating to Iraq, and lack of leadership from Washington on long shoreman strike, etc...

    Let's say GSPN successfully spent all $100M in cash to buy back its stock as announced last quarter (worse case scenario with respect to cash). With buy pressure at around $3.60/share before the trading window closed a few weeks before quarter end, let's further suppose they bought back at that price. Assume they bought 28M shares. That leaves 141-28=113M shares outstanding.

    Today, they set expectations of $0.07/share loss, or $10M (.07x113M). So, we can expect to see cash drop $110M ($10M in operations and $100M in buy-back). That is consistent with the $8M used in operations last quarter.

    Last quarter, they had $444M in cash and short term investments, $864M total assets, $323M total liabilities. So, now they should have $334M cash and short term investments, $754M total assets. Assume liabilities stay the same.

    If all the above is accurate, book value now $3.81/share, cash and short term investments at $2.96/share, and only losing $0.07/share/quarter on revenues of $0.41/quarter.

    Rational thought sugests this stock should be trading in the $3-4 range. Eventually, it will, when rationality returns to the markets overall and the analysts start figuring this out taking into account the steep growth of DSL in Asia and Europe (and GSPN's apparent wins there).

    Who's selling at $1.66/share??? Not me!!!

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