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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

  • sonomaca sonomaca Oct 24, 2008 5:24 PM Flag

    Political risks

    I believe that any company in the payer or related sectors is vulnerable to the coming HC nationalization. It's going to take awhile, as Medicare expands down the age scale and SCHIP up, and as we get a new govt plan designed to siphon off workers from private plans. However, the number of privately-insured lives is going to decline year-by-year. This is stealth nationalization, and it's going to smart a bit.

    Remember Trizetto, which went out near $22. That stock would be $10 today.

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    • millerjones Oct 26, 2008 6:26 PM Flag

      so do you think ATHN is a good investment or not -as a company, fundamentials etc - in the HCIT sector they may be the purest yet? come on - they sure as heck seem like a pure play on numbers, celeb CEO aside

      • 1 Reply to millerjones
      • I think you can probably start buying it here, and more if it gets into the teens. I think my arguments about political risk have mostly been priced in, although there is a doomsday scenario where the government just nationalizes HC in one giant move. Obama and Co. might use the economic crises as an excuse to radically transform American society in one fell swoop, as I believe Obama is a radical socialist with authoritarian tendencies.

        I would rather own a company like Cerner here. CERN has shown it can function in a socialized HC environment, ie the UK. Also, the implosion at GE is going to impact GE HC's ability to compete. I believe GE HC will be spun-off within the next few months, but not before lots of turmoil. CERN will be poised to take advantage, as will MCK.

    • One caveat, however, which is cost. If the Dems decide that socialist ideaology must give way budgetary reality, the whole rush to government-run HC might be slowed a bit.

      • 1 Reply to sonomaca
      • Oh, and BTW, the CEO is a close relative of the reviled soon-to-be ex-President. I have no doubt, given the thuggish nature of Obama's minions (and perhaps of the Prophet himself), that ATHN customers and partners will be discouraged from doing business with this company. Think this is far-fetched? This is a brave new world, where those who would cross the Messiah had better watch their backs.

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