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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

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  • georgespelvin Dec 17, 2012 4:39 PM Flag


    Thank you, ufgtor. I felt it was overvalued for almost a year but it rose on the story and it is hard to fight a story. When the story grew old and it seemed like reality was beginning to set in and it had gone from 97 to 92 I shorted. Within several months it became my largest win in percentage and abs dollars. I have lost ground in the recent few weeks but I don't like to micro trade swings. I don't know how. Plus it's too much work. But there is little that is more of a downward pressure than a shattered rosy story and it looks to me like this story will not be shattered until after this quarter is reported. The valuation makes no sense. There is nothing about what this company does that I do not know. Nothing. At $25 this is overpriced. With its adversely scaling margins the more business it does the worse the outlook becomes. And these decreasing margins tell you that they have no meaningful technology. Part if that story is hidden by the clever fact that for the most part they just handle the I initial billing processes and not the downstream issues which means that the margins would be even worse if those costs did not reside on the P&L's of their clients. They have renewed some large contracts at two thirds if their initial term prices.

    With some creative revenue recognition manipulations they can hide this. They ALL do it. If they get caught the SEC and DOJ pretend they are shocked. That they had no idea. It is a shill game and the naive are the patsies.

    Not one member of senior mgt has bought a single share. Ever. They sell. The little guy buys.

    I am looking forward to seeing the net flow of the institutions. I have said that I think they are selling into the story. Anyone can see what they do on Yahoo finance.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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