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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

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  • georgespelvin Jan 14, 2013 11:40 AM Flag

    forecasting mid state prices

    Correction on MSFT. It revers split as I recall. The $100 stock would now be $50 stock. The price came down adjusted for the split by 50% while the P/E adjusted by the same amount (reverse split 1 for 2 gets you from 60 times earnings to 30 and then stock goes to 25 which would take the p/e to 15 where it is.
    So essentially MSFT has been dead for a decade.

    Why screw around with a Microsoft when you can interact with an Apple or a ton of other sectors and companies that have a tail wind, not a head wind (it is easier to make money as a long then as a short given that the general direction of the market is up). It is easier to make money in a mild upward gradient by buying than it is to make money by shorting in a mild downturn. I just feel that the price of ATHN is absurd when you look at just the numbers and then even more so when you add in the market color.

    These things all have their day. Even legitimate, big companies not being put together as a get rich quick scheme. If you had bought General Motors 40 years ago you might be no better off today. My bet is that 10 years from now the young kids will not have heard of ATHN anymore than most of you have heard of Contel, Verssys or Healtheon (three decades of ;just three exotic-story high profile nickel rockets).

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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