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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com georgespelvin Jan 29, 2013 5:13 AM Flag

    Latest puff announcement on new win for ATHN

    It is the same win announced 8 days ago. Further it is a win for the acquired company. Further this is from Zacks which rates ATHN a 5. Which is a stone cold SELL.

    Most significant acquisitions have a dark side. One side or the other or both are desperate. The acquirees dress their companies for purchase. They manipulate their revenues and overhead. Look what happened to GE when it bought IDX. Very next year revenues down 40%. You would think GE would know that. Look at Allscriots and Misys. Two monstrously bad companies joining up.

    Athena is a promotion. Who the hell is Jonathan Bush in medical billing circles? It is a joke. It's like thinking of #$%$ Cheney as a real CEO. Cheney was a freaking Golf Ambassador. Halliburton does not need a CEO. It needs a Golf Ambassador. CEO's don't negotiate no bid contracts. Golf Ambassadors do.

    Bush is Athena's Golf Ambassador.

    Conf Call coming. If they use pooling of interests accounting with the TWO major acquisitions you will not be able to tell what is real and what is trickery without work.

    Athena services have value at a price. The problem is the clients pay for one thing but get another. And as they find out they renegotiate. And now Bush us desperately trying to confuse things by acquiring companies. He is taking money given to him for one thing and using it not to build that thing but buy other things. It is so obvious.

    Tick tock.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • I thought the same thing, the desparation before the storm really starting to show.

      • 1 Reply to pmarz
      • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com georgespelvin Jan 31, 2013 4:07 PM Flag

        One day you come to work and you find that you are playing a hand that you no longer have faith in but you still have that hand and you know only how to play the same game you were playing before. You cannot fold and go home. So you play the endgame, hoping for some divine intervention, a magical reset. it almost never happens. I cannot foresee one here. The whole sector has been distorted by subsidies, the early adopters adopted, the balance is more skeptical and the subsidies are not evenly distributed but in un-reassuring step functions from a source that is regarded as suspect AND it is now common knowledge that using an EMR reduces daily patient load productivity (while admittedly conferring other advantages). And that is why hospital based practices were the first adopters. The doctors are not paid on personal productivity. Their productivity hovers south of 50% of private practice productivity, sometimes as low as one third...if they have resident and hospital admin responsibilities. That hospitals are the first adopters is also why there is that wrong notion that the sector is a rich one. The first adopters are people spending OPM, not their own money. EMR per doctor started out at over $25,000 per license plus implementation and support. It is in the lowest cases about a quarter of that now. But ATHN does not even front load sell. They are SaaS. They get their money over time and over time their fees go down. So they have two hits there. Not that SaaS is a bad model. It is the only model that makes sense. But the only way to value a SaaS company is from recurring revenue, not from new sales and imp fees. And the idea that you disregard amortization and depreciation is wrong. And the idea that you ignore stock based compensation is wrong.

        \This is not a bad company. It is a bad stock. And the people who know the most about it, are the biggest sellers of it. They got in low. You would have to be crazy not to get out now, a second trip to a former high, having gotten in at a fraction of the current prices.

        IMO. But who knows. We will soon know.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

 
ATHN
130.82+4.46(+3.53%)Jul 23 4:00 PMEDT

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