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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

  • georgespelvin May 6, 2013 10:19 AM Flag

    Technical analysis vs fundamentals

    Interestingly TA was showing this pricing move as well as a fundamental analysis. TA was showing a price of $80 without the change of dumb investor enthusiasm. The local channel minimum was due for this move.

    Now that you have chilling fundamental news and finally the pimps are using real GAAP numbers and there are even more chilling sector news, the bottom of this negative run should shoot below the last one of $56. We could see easily the $40's.

    The institutions are between a rock and a hard place if they even know what is happening. Maybe some will try to make a private sale below market but outside the view of the market. If such things are done.

    The current fundamentals indicate a share price under $10. Every dollar above that needs some faith that mgt would embrace reality and chop off all the excessive and expensive fantasy-based flourishes and just be a quasi billing service. But they would need to sell Epocrates and that stupid office building and stop pretending they are disrupters of technology from the bowels of the University of Chicago Econ Dept and get down to business. They are not disrupters outside of their morning showers. We all sound like Sinatra in the shower.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Love 3 of your references: 1. the pickle the institutional longs are in as well as 2.) the shower metaphor and 3.) libs at Univ of Shitcago, classic stuff most average folk will never get. If CEO Bush sings in the shower perhaps he's belting out 'And now the End is Near and so I face my Final Curtain'..... As I said before, if anyone reads any credible forward thinking blogs like the one I mentioned b/f, they would have made money here. Cramer is a total idiot for allowing Bush to hoodwink him th eway he did. And Cramer's comparison of ATHN to CRM should be enough for CNBC to banish him for life.

      • 1 Reply to pigbob007
      • georgespelvin May 6, 2013 9:23 PM Flag

        thanks. if you change your id let me know.

        This went to $56 last time. Did not totally understand what the market saw the last time given that it then went back up. But now that it is going down again i have to believe there is more conviction in the sellers and that means it may go past where it went before because the sellers now understand that there is a structural, not temporal issue. And the marketplace is much worse now. The subsidies compressed years of naturally paced give and take market dynamics and evolving insights among the doctor clients into 18 frenzied months. Frenzy was the goal.

        There are now clients all over the place that are postponing the EMR implementation portion of their integrated PMS/EMR purchases because the subsidies are not worth the opportunity costs of the dysfunction they are facing with new PMS routines (billing) and because it is now common knowledge that an EMR reduces doctor productivity by up to 25%.

        Financially, an EMR reduces the work of $15 per hour charge capture clerks at the expense of $600 per hour physicians, all so that the government can ultimately detach the medical record from the doctor. I am not saying that is a bad idea or a good idea. But that is the purpose of the EMR. It is financial, not clinical. The goal is to disenfranchise the doctor.

        The doctors are like the apocryphal Manhattan Indians who sold Manhattan for beads. In this case it is $14,000 per doc first year, less second, less third, for a total of $44,000 and a promise not to reduce their Medicare payments by 1.5%, a promise that will be honored in the breach. It is not even a promise that can be made. Normally if Medicare paid too little the docs would not participate and then what? But they have been stampeded into a situation in which the chart is out of their filing racks.


        Sentiment: Strong Sell

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