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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

  • georgespelvin@rocketmail.com georgespelvin May 10, 2013 10:51 PM Flag

    It occurs to me

    that a perfectly legitmate way of figuring out which way this stock price will go is to decided if there is any compelling reason to buy the stock at these prices and who would do the buying. And then to take the same look at the sell side.

    if you look at the trade sizes they are not thousands of share lots. They are hundreds, even single hundreds. That makes sense. Out of 35 million shares, 30 million are owned by large institutions. They are not going to buy anymore for the purpose of increasing their holdings. That would be insane. Who among them thinks they need 20% more shares? None. There would be only one reason for large institutions to buy and that would be to essentially protect the value of the 80% of the outstanding they have which they could do to start a short squeeze which would shoot the price of the stock up from insane to insane squared. Then what?

    For the little trader who trades a hundred shares why the hell would he choose ATHN to buy when he could buy ten shares of Apple or, if he likes insane multiples, Amazon. Or any of a hundred other names? There is no reason at all for a little trader to go long here. Zero.

    Other than to cover, which is to close a short, which gets back to the short squeeze and buying by institutions.

    I dont know much about the shenanigans of the stock market, other than it exists. But I see no scenario in which the company, with its current fundamental trajectory and what I know to be the difficult market, should see a rise in share price.

    Thus, absent a concerted effort by instituitions to create a buying panic among shorts I see the stock going down because, as I said above, what the hell do the insittuitions do after they own all the shares? They have the same problem they have now, only with more shares, at a higher price, and no anonymous public market.

    Interested in your thoughts.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

 
ATHN
149.19-0.53(-0.35%)Dec 26 4:00 PMEST

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