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  • jacosa jacosa • Jun 8, 2010 2:08 PM Flag

    Renal Guard will take PLCSF over 1

    Dilution implies a buyer for stock or convertible securities. i think PLC is too sick for that. Too many shares are completely illiquid for a cheapie tender offer--ask prices often over $1 show that.

    If RG becomes the standard of care in Italy, sales go up a lot more than 2x (that's imaginable next year, not this). That probably would be enough to generate a clinical trial in Northern Europe somewhere, with the promise of a survivable business. I think everyone is sick enough of this company so any realistic offer for all of it would go through. (Even if they aren't defensible, the RG patents would be worth $25MM for nuisance value, should the procedure take off. If defensible, thay'd be worth at least 10x that).

    I don't believe that prior "preventions" for CIN had more than 2 independent positive trials before taking off, so a degree of acceptance is within reach. What I've seen of cost estimates for RG treatment are in the same range as the treatments it is looking more effective than. Adding a nurse to do essentially what a RG console does is more costly, but gives labs a chance to see a proof-of-principle in the flesh.

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    • participant42 participant42 • Jun 8, 2010 6:01 PM Flag

      Jacosa, as to your "ask price of $1" noting lack of liquidity, sure there's not a lot of liquidity in the stock, BUT, the ask price of $1 is a phantom. Since this is a "hybrid" stock---traded on both the Bulletin Board and the Pink Sheets--there are more specific quotes to be had (if, for instance, you use Scottrade' streaming quotes, PLCSF.U and PLCSF.V give you the pink sheet qote and the Bulletin Board quote. Or, you can go to pinksheets.com for the former quote.)
      Right now, and for the last few days, between those, the low ask has been .17 (put in a bid at that price and you'll get some) and the high bid is .125 (put in a sell at that price and some will sell).
      The amalgam quote of bid .02, ask $1.01 is bullshit and meaningless.
      Around these quotes there should be sufficient liquidity to buy or sell tens of thousands of shares at close to these prices.

      • 1 Reply to participant42
      • jacosa jacosa • Jun 9, 2010 11:21 AM Flag

        Ok, you're right on the prices. But if there was significant liquidity such a thing wouldn't happen. In this context, we're talking about enough liquidity for a hostile tender offer to have a chance. I'll make a somewhat educated guess that it would take an offer around $0.80 to generate that, and a friendly sale would probably be cheaper.

        So the likely futures hold either a friendly sale or adoption of RG in several countries. Dilutive financing is not presently possible. Hostile takeover looks very unlikely. The RG patents are too valuable to just walk away from.

        I've said it before: my best guess is a friendly sale at around 30 cents. A sad outcome, but enough to prevent me dumping my stock. (And as I get older, I see friends who would be excellent TMR candidates treated in other ways, but that's a different story).

 
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