CARBO Ceramics Inc. Message Board
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Talk About Out of Favor..
Stock now has a 12-month Relative Strength of 6 meaning it is under performing 94 percent of all stocks.
Stock is now 15.8 percent below the 50-Day.
Stock currently has a lowest possible accumulation-distribution rating of E on a scale of A to E.
Stock is owned by 13 percent fewer funds in the latest reporting quarter than the previous quarter - a very large decrease.
By all these IBD measures, it appears that institutions really hate this stock. Yet the earnings numbers really aren't that bad - the IBD EPS rating is a respectable 80 out of 100.
There must be some serious issues that institutions have with this stock at present.-
After FTK 15% pop today, CRR will be next with a surprise upswing !
- 1 Reply to roelhart
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New markets for ceramic frac proppants opening up in China and Middle East, does anybody know if CRR is signing contracts with oil majors in Egypt and Yemen?
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Bot some crr today at 63.22
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Spanky, I do appreciate this bit of education. This is a complex industry -- I invested because of the seeming strength, but am finding it difficult to get a grasp on the vicissitudes of Carbo's market, the prospects for Carbo in particular and for proppant and oil/natural gas generally, going forward.
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Any sign of rebound in Europe/Asia or both will be like a spring board for the oil patch. just because drilling is slowing in Natural Gas doesn't mean there will be less drilling, or less demand for CRR as the shift is from Gas to Oil. http://b2icontent.irpass.cc/498%2F136058.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=1Y51NDPSZK99KT3F8VG2&Expires=1343786594&Signature=fTXx4mqym5bLkXDvS1iszCMrUGU%3D Page 5 and 6 show the transition from gas to oil so basically total wells are still growing overall.
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Google "Spring Break Up Oil" it is a weather related slow down in the overall oil and gas drilling cycle. Anyone who is long or short any oil or gas company that operates in Canada knows what the spring break up is.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/tough-spring-for-canadas-oil-and-gas-service-sector/article4435705/ -
I have little stake in this company. I think the stock at current levels is under priced. If anything at these levels this company can be a great buy-out candidate by SLB or maybe another competitor with decent cash reserves.
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I am doing as you suggest. (Had already read the transcript, but certainly need to reread a few times.) Interestingly,when I googled "spring break up" carbo ceramics, the first link I tried was this article written 7/5/11:
http://www.zacks.com/commentary/18112/carbo-ceramics-inc
Ah, I am nostalgic for last year.
On the other hand, seeing that strong buy recommendation when the price was around 166 suggests that all the current downgrades may indeed be contra indicators. -
How do you not know what spring break up is? Try google and 2 seconds later you will have a clue. You could also read the conference call transcript.
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"Yet the earnings numbers really aren't that bad"
Agree. Even the revenue were surprisingly strong, increasing two quarters in a row since they said that they had to move their products from stalling natural gas drilling.
The recent increase in dividend is either based on their still solid business or a reckless CFO. For now it seems the former.
"Stock is owned by 13 percent fewer funds in the latest reporting quarter"
When you know that most funds are managed by less than average managers, with most of them showing paltry yields for their investors, you don't pay much heed to that kind of information.
No doubt that when they get out of a stock it hurts the price because of their size and the small float of CRR in particular, but as for their acumen at taking the right decision on a stock...- 2 Replies to nofence81
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Agree that the institutional stock pickers are mediocre.. for that matter, the vast majority of stock advisers seem mediocre. That I guess is why fund managers have to have so many stocks in a fund.. in the hopes that, on average, they can beat the market (which most can't consistently), and why the consensus outlook of market advisers generally is known as a contrary indicator for the market direction. But, that is all beside the point.
The institutions move the stock price, not the small investor. When a stock is held by 13 percent fewer funds from one quarter to the next, the 50 day is well below the 200 day with both trending down and the stock is still in extreme distribution, one can only conclude that a bottom is likely not yet in. This does not necessarily rule out a bottom being here or near, but objective indicators strongly imply otherwise regardless of whether it 'makes sense' or not. -
the market looks forward,not back,and the company gave a very weak prognosis in its conference call.
the best time to buy a good company is when everyone hates it. like now. i bot some crr yesterday at 65.10 and will add more if it drops again.
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