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Desarrolladora Homex, SAB de CV Message Board

  • siemprefue siemprefue Apr 25, 2013 5:54 PM Flag

    Secondary very soon IMO

    w/ negative FCF of MX$3b, they may have US$125mm left after paying down debt, including proceeds from the penitentiary sale. SG&A is running about US$40mm/quarter. They simply cannot stay in business without raising capital. My guess is the deal gets done in the 5s with a raise around US$400mm, loss of control and pretty steep dilution. It'll be ugly but once it's done they can move on and right the ship.

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    • Originally I had $3.45 in mind, now I'm thinking less than $1.80

      • 1 Reply to colonelangus007
      • I don't know. I was thinking $200m market cap pre-money, $600mm post-money, with 100mm to 200mm to pay down debt or increase working capital which would reduce CFC at the project level. either way, i am on the sidelines until they raise capital. i don't see this thing popping immediately so there should be a chance to digest the deal terms. downside risk is they simply sell the whole thing to INCARSO or Equity International or a CKD on the cheap, in which case there's limited or no upside at this level. I also wonder if we won't see consolidation among the builders????

    • Bro, the equity is done. The only hope now is to voluntarily restructure the debt and bring in new equity senior to the old equity that essentially wipes out the current shareholder. Current shareholders are looking at a 90% loss from here and debtholders are probably taking a 30% haircut.

      Sorry Bro. You're screwed.

      • 1 Reply to uncletizz
      • S&P still has it at $14 on April 26th, but I imagine you all know better

        02:16 pm ET ... S&P REITERATES HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON ADSS OF HOMEX
        (HXM 5.41***): Excluding one-time items, Q1 EPS of $0.11, vs. $0.69, is $0.04 higher
        than our most recently published consensus estimate from Capital IQ. Revenues
        fell 46%, however, driven by volume declines in housing. Gross margins fell
        significantly. While we favor HXM's decision to focus on profitability and cash
        flows given its relatively high debt load, we see continued challenges near term.
        The sale of HXM's interest in the two federal penetentiaries provides a liquidity
        boost, and HXM might also spin off its infrastructure division to generate
        additional cash.

 
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