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HXM Message Board

  • jack1ok jack1ok Aug 22, 2013 3:02 PM Flag

    Buying more HXM bond

    Bond is quite attractive comparing to stock at $2.

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    • Stock price action still confused me based on Bond price. May be Mexico bond is different.

      Is the principal that Bond get back 100% before stock gets any still hold in Mexico? if so, Bond at 22% is too low, right?

    • The bondholder group is willing to fund a new business plan for Culiacan-based Homex but so far efforts to work with the Mexican banks haven’t succeeded, this person said. Plans may materialize in the coming months after the bondholder group has access to more information on the company, this person said.
      -- WSJ 21 Aug 13, Moneybeat

    • Fitch says 30-50% recovery. bind at 24% now. My thinking is that the actual recovery usually is higher than rating agency predicted (They are usually on conservative side).

      As stock at about $2, bond looks good at 24%.

      • 1 Reply to jack1ok
      • Yes, I agree. Rating agencies are usually conservative and thus lower in their assessment. Fitch also said the recovery of Vitro was going to be around 30% to 50% I believe. Vitro filed bankruptcy back in '09. Now their bonds are trading 83 cents. So, Fitch was totally off.

        I actually think both bonds and stocks are going to do well in the long run. Of HXM holdings, my breakout is currently 90% bonds and 10% stocks. I was going to buy more HXM common if it hit below $1, but never got there. If HXM files bankruptcy as a result of inability to move forward with its bankers, I am going to buy more common.

        In the meantime, I am going to accumulate more bonds. I have been trying to get some below 20cents.

    • What is your down side and upside assessment!? And time frame for things to happen?