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Intrepid Potash, Inc. Message Board

  • orlyzman orlyzman Jul 2, 2008 10:28 PM Flag

    12 Month Forward Earning Projections

    Alright guys, I'll try to layout my EPS projections for the next 12 months on Intrepid Potash. Of course I may be way off, but I'm trying to use conservative estimates and I'm assuming there will be no decrease or increase in the amount of potash and Langbeinite produced/sold (very shocking for a growth company LoL). Okay let's get this thing started
    *Key Assumptions*
    Annual Potash production 870,000
    Annual Langbeinite production 210,000
    Therefore Potash sold/quarter 217,000
    Langbeinite sold/quarter 52,500

    2nd Quarter
    Potash Pricing 500 COGS 160(i know its lower than this but it should factor in some random expenses)
    Langbeinite Pricing 211 COGS 100 (did the same thing here)

    Revenues: Potash (108,750,000) Langbeinite(11,602,500)

    Net Profit after taxes (40% tax rate)
    48,181,500
    EPS (75million shares) .64242

    3rd Quarter
    Potash Pricing 600 COGS 160
    Langbeinite Pricing 300 COGS 100

    Revenues: Potash (130,500,000) Langbeinite(15,750,000)

    Net Profit after taxes (40% tax rate)
    63,720,000
    EPS (75million shares) .8496

    4th quarter
    Potash Pricing 700 COGS 160
    Langbeinite Pricing 350 COGS 100

    Revenues: Potash (152,250,000) Langbeinite(18,375,000)

    Net Profit after taxes (40% tax rate)
    78,345,000
    EPS (75million shares) 1.0446

    1st quarter (2009)
    Potash Pricing 750 COGS 160
    Langbeinite Pricing 375 COGS 100

    Revenues: Potash (163,125,000) Langbeinite(19,687,500)

    Net Profit after taxes (40% tax rate)
    85,657,500
    EPS (75million shares) 1.1421

    Forward 12 Month EPS 3.66

    P/E: 10 36.6/share
    15 54.9
    20 73.2
    25 91.5
    30 109.8
    35 128.1
    40 146.4

    Things to note, Intrepid already has plans to increase production of potash and langbeinite. I believe the Langbeinite production is being increased by a larger amount than Potash. I remember from the conference speech that Bob gave, that he foresees a large demand for Langbeinite in the future. Langbeinite is probably a decent substitute for potash and only 2 plants in North America produces this so the pricing may significantly increase just as potash did.

    Hopefully this will provide some insight for the investors on this board. If you cannot see past the daily trading session than just ignore this post and take profits cause its a market panic sell off!! :D

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    • thanks for the numbers.

      do you happen to know if someone's claim on another thread, that they rent but do not own their land, is true? And, if true, is that something important?

      • 1 Reply to prettypolishgirl2
      • onespacetraveler@sbcglobal.net onespacetraveler Jul 4, 2008 11:35 AM Flag

        IPI owns the mineral rights and there fore they own the potash. The canadian's passed a law in the early 1900's stating you can't buy mineral rights and hence Canada owns about 90 to 95 percent of canadian minerals and when POT and MOS for example pay a tax to canada for each ton of potash that is extracted. Hopes this helps you and if people are saying what you just mentioned they are just bashing and are probably short pay no attention. Listen to CEO Boj J on IPI web site and he will explain it. Go to intrepidpotash and listen to the RCB conference it is 20 min longs.

    • orlyzman, COGS was $150 million for all of 2007. Why are you using $160 million for each Q? I would think $40 million per Q would be much closer to actual.

    • I am fine with that guy. But, you are a Total Butt-HOLE. So, why don't you get some of your friends on this board to grease it for ya?

      You are an angry little prick because you lost your lunch money....and, no doubt a lot of your retirement money, too. But, who the heck needs to ever retire. Life in the fast lane of flipping burgers is the life for you.

    • Am not sure how you are doing this, but neither your tax factors nor math seem to come out correctly. The company should only be taxed on net, not gross revenues, meaning the cost of production and other operational expenses are first subtracted from gross revenues before the tax rate is applied to the taxable net revenues. Assuming your 40% tax rate is correct, than you multiply the net revenues by .60 to arrive at the final earnings which, divided by the number of os gives you the eps.

      • 1 Reply to zenstar666
      • That is because his is an exercise in futility.

        There are 100 factors he must account for, the most important the price of potash, not to mention what price IPI will actually get relative to "market" price. Therefore, any analysis is worth much less than meets the eye and only serves to delude the credulous into a false sense of security. In the words of some idiot, "There are the known knowns, the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns." Gotta love that guy.

    • what is your 12 and 24 months PPS projections??

      • 1 Reply to hardmoneywarehouse
      • Nice to see some numbers and some actual thoughts on a post. As someone said what about direct expenses and/or capex and possible dilution of more employee shares on the market. Minor issues, but items to be aware of. If you wanted to dispell the what price is Potash going to be argument, you could take current prices and increase/decrease by 20% for a nice range.

    • Hey Einstein...leave him alone. The guy was putting together a projection for fun. You don't have to be such a dick and shoot holes into everything someone posts. Everyone is getting really sick of you here.

      Go walk into traffic this 4th of July!

    • You seem like a solid guy, but you place much to much faith in you ability to estimate potash prices. As far as production, IPI has very little ability to ramp up production in the short run. So, you are back to estimated potash prices. I am contending that you have almost zero ability to make a better forecast of potash prices than the analyst who are conjuring up the the June 30 quarter earnings, because they have much more access to info than they do. By the same token, they too would be guessing about next year's potash prices, which is why I say that it is a flight of fantasy to put any credibility is the "forward" P/E estimate of 13 cited by so many novices here and based on "rabbit out of the hat estimates" as an excuse for holding this stock.

      But, since you seem like an intelligent and diligent fellow, indulge me and the other here a bit, and tell me how you compare POT with IPI and which has the better valuation? It is much easier to compare two companies in almost the same business as to whip up an earnings estimate on a highly volatile commodity.

    • Just remember, you need to account for the amount and timing of capex in your estimates.

    • Good Job ORLY!!!

    • Thanks for the numbers, makes a nice platform for discussion.

      My information is that for chloride-sensitive crops, the lang is BETTER. Tobacco comes to mind (think 'sulphate of potash' vs 'muriate of potash'..

      Might want to check that, I am working from memory, but I think that's correct...

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