As of today, markets are poised for the sell-off. This sell-off could last up to mid-July. Beware! Sell IPI before big boys do it for you. Any breakdown below $17 could create a new target at $12. Big boys or institutions won't have mercy if they do it before you. Potash prices will decrease because of low demand vs. previous years. Be cautious with what you are doing with IPI.
Here is a review:
"Worldwide reserves of potash could surpass demand by 59% to 100% by 2020, says the latest report published by Rabobank, a by Netherlands-based global financial service.
The report, "Playing the Potash Field", adds that the North American potash consortium Canpotex and its European counterpart BPC won't sit back and watch while new players inject additional quantities of the fertilizer into the global market.
One of the key variables, according to Rabobank, will be the degree to which Brazil, India and China – collectively were responsible for 40% of total potash imports in 2011 – are prepared to endure uneconomic projects to secure supplies either domestically or by investing in overseas developments.
"In the end, it is mainly geopolitical and long-term strategic security parameters that justify such investments," Rabobank analyst Dirk Jan Kennes said in a statement. "From a pure economics angle, many of these investments might render losses if prices come under pressure due to oversupply," he added."
I am long IPI and I also hate the stock, along with other potash producers. I got mislead by the thought that, eventually, potash is essential. Perhaps it is essential, but at a price. We need another $200.00 a ton. With more supply coming on stream, I just don't see how that is possible.