Always go with the underdog. The current low price is the result of short term trading hysteria and cannot be sustained. It will move back up, and it could happen faster than any of us anticipate. A lot of foolish traders are shorting this as part of a "pair trade" with POT. This is a short term strategy which appears to rely on fundamentals but traders who actually know nothing about fundamentals because they don't even follow the companies in question. The misguided idea behind this strategy is that POT is the strongest in the sector and IPI they weakest, so when the sector took a hit, they went long POT and shorted IPI as a "hedge," believing if the sector continued to underperform they would make more on their IPI short than their POT long. The market is full of games. The same game players who crushed IPI's price on baseless speculation will be instrumental in sending it back up where it belongs.
I did happen exactly as you called it, sooner than anyone expected. I suppose the gradual rise to 15+ will now take a few more months but I would accept being wrong again about the timing to see $15 in one or 2 weeks..
Neil, has IPI closely followed the commodity price volatility?
I cannot speak to the actual price but I agree with you on the gradual recovery. It may not happen until a tight price range is seen in potash for a duration(week-weeks?) but it will follow when that occurs.