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Sonic Foundry, Inc. Message Board

  • flamfurter flamfurter Jul 15, 2007 4:15 AM Flag

    Merriman Cuhan Ford

    I read their report and they are predicting 16.4mm revenue for 2007 and 20.7mm for 2008. They are predicting a .19 loss for 2007 and a .14 loss for 2008. We can assume that they have better access to info then we do and therefore we must all ratchet down our expectations for profitable quarters for now. The positive take is based on these predictions they believe sofo is a 4-5$ stock. I admit that SOFO has lost alot of its appeal after their sucker pucnch last quarter but I still like their position (especiall in the non-consumer driven education market) but I cannot justify the large position that I have now that they have clearly scaled back expectations. JMHO.

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    • I enjoy this type of information...great reading likened to a superman comic book. Of course analyst are seldom wrong, as we all know and that they use the buy/sell analogy to make money. To be worth $4/$5 with no break even in sight is a pretty strong statement for a technologies stocks with most of their eggs in one basket. The under currents of that issue are of buy out speculation. By 2009 SOFO will not exist selling this same technology if it exists at all. However, I do enjoy the news�..anything at all just to keep your face amongst the crowd.

    • lucky for you the price is higher so you
      can scale back before they report.

      • 1 Reply to tseels55
      • I don't know...I agree the analysis is based on more than the typical stockholder might have access to, but I find it hard to believe that Rimas is that far off with his B/E projection.

        I still go back to deal size....if they get a big sales contract or two, this will really change their bottom line. Merriman's projection is likely based on past performance and we all know the average deal size to date have been small.

        We'll see...the model can change pretty quickly...

    • Man, I hope they're wrong. Because 25 percent top-line growth over an 18-month horizon is not enough to move this stock. It also indicates that Rimas *badly* misread the market and the capacity of Sonic Foundry to sell into that market. If that .14 cent loss in 2008 is accurate, then conceivably we'd still be looking at a loss in FY 2009. It seems nearly inconceivable that Rimas was talking break-even in 2006 when, in fact, Sonic Foundry may still be bleeding cash three years from now.

      Please, someone, anyone, tell me I'm missing some piece of the big picture. Because what I'm reading here sure seems incredibly disheartening.

 
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