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Sonic Foundry, Inc. Message Board

  • flamfurter flamfurter Aug 2, 2007 7:00 AM Flag

    Breakeven Fallacy

    I think you have this all wrong. Breakeven is irrelevant. This is GROWTH stock and not a value play. they need to deliver revenue growth, revenue growth and more revenue growth. they need to show acceleration in all aspects of their business in order to keep their very high valuation. that is why the stock is getting hurt again because the growth, although decent is not that exciting no matter how they try to couch it. They went from talking 60% growth and 80% margins to 31% growth and 74% margins. that sucks and will not support the stock price. So screw b/e vs a few cent loss. show us accelerating growth that they keep saying is right around the corner.

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    • I completely agree. Some people here have mentioned the stock doubling if the company reaches BE; well, I doubt it, but even if it did what where will the stock price be before it breaks even? If it's 1.50 and it doubles to 3.00 who cares unless you got in at 1.50? If you got in at 3.50, and you think that BE means the price will double I'm sorry, I just don't agree at least for a long time. Very good and realistic post flamfurter!

      • 1 Reply to pinstriper23
      • SOFO has already BEEN at over double this price in the past 12 months. Well over double the current price. Does that necessarily mean it will rebound to double it's current price in the next twelve months? Not necessarily, but keep in mind that SOFO more than tripled in price during 2006 (if my memory serves me correctly).

        All this to say that, to me, merely doubling in price once B/E is reached would not be that fantastic. I am optimistic regarding the closure of bigger deals with deep-pocket clients. Remember the size of the pipeline and the expected growth in deals greater than $50K.

        And no, the number of units sold is not the only (nor necessarily the best) indicator of proximity to B/E...but it is one way of measuring progress. SaaS and other ventures may very well prove to be huge.

        Don't count this management team out just yet. Education is a tough nut to crack but once you've got your foot in the door, there IS a lot of cash to be had for quality vendors and products.

        NattyB

 
SOFO
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