all my shares. I will not tender any. It is possible we sell off after July 11, but IMO TGX will trade above 2.25 in the near future. TGX will buy back approx 4.5m shares,or more than 10% of the total outstanding shares. This will boost eps by more than 10% as a result. With no improvement in fundamentals, TGX eps will increase from 0.11 to 0.12 because of reduced # shares. Using same p/e 18.77 from yesterday close, TGX should rise to 2.25. I am also betting on improved sales and eps numbers for the rest of 2012....and with reduced number of outstanding shares will push TGX stock price even higher. We shall see.
I see what you mean about the outstanding shares number not tying up. Whether its a mistake or some other factor (like options being exercised) remains to be seen.
Haha dont get me started on the board :) The CEO and exec team are overpaid (I voted to reject their comp package) and are paid almost entirely in cash - this is scandalous for a company with limited cash earnings. Having $2.5m in cash burn from comp brings tears to my eyes and offers no incentive to boost share price. LT shareholders have really been screwed here. I'm glad that I didnt get in until 2010.
I think TGX will command a higher p/e than 15. Even now after sell off, p/e @ 18. With eps growth at greater than 50%,0.09 to 0.14 (using your estimate) eps using p/e/g =1, equals 50. I doubt that will happen, but I do think p/e 15 is too low going forward. My question to the board - TGX bought back 4.762 m shares. Total outstanding shares = 33.941m from qtr 1 2012. New total outstanding shares should be only 29.18m. Why is TGX stating new total outstanding shares equals 29.968m? Where are the extra 790k shares coming from?
I've already had one company do this style of buyback this year and it did sell off somewhat (around 10%) after the tender offer expired.
I've lightened up, because my position size was too big and next year worries me as I don't see much upside from here, In my view no one is going to give this stock more than a 15-20x multiple at current growth rates and in this market environment. So the upside isn't that great and with the impact of the health care tax ( which at current levels tax knocks 2c per quarter of earnings) it seems really hard to grow earnings unless they can really get some good sales growth.
In qtr 1 TGX delivered $2.4m in positive cash flow. If TGX can show this was not a one time event and deliver another $2.4m or greater in cash flow for qtr 2, then I bet TGX will not remain in the 2s for much longer.
I've been in so many reverse splits that were NEVER good, that it seems this reduction in o/s would have almost no cons, except maybe reduce the float - which will probably make it a little more difficult to trade the shares.