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Theragenics Corp. Message Board

  • quicktrader_2000 quicktrader_2000 Dec 5, 2000 6:46 AM Flag

    Good level of discussion...

    ...let�s go on like that.

    See the posts
    relating "Intrinsic Value" not long ago, there I talked
    about ~30% growth. I don�t want to restart the
    discussion but now we talk about 33% or 43% growth. I stay
    with my expectations of 30% and am looking forward to
    new distribution channels of TGX and the discussion
    on this board.

    Quicktrader

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Quicktrader, I cannot share your optimism. The
      following are the 4 best quarters in sales in the history
      of TGX. Therefore to reach a level of 58M of sales
      in 2001 you would have equal the sales of the 4 best
      quarters and add in an additional 11.873 million of sales
      (25.7% sales increase). This is the equivalent of one
      additional quarter of sales added into the 4 best quarters�
      sales total. With the poor performance of the current
      management, does anyone believe that this is even in the
      realm of a possibility as long as the current CEO is at
      the helm.

      3rd qtr 1999 11,480
      4th qtr
      1999 11,952
      1st qtr 2000 11,230
      2nd qtr
      2000 11,465
      Total 46,127

      58M minus 46.127M equals 11.873M in sales or 25.7%
      increase.

      Note: I currently have a short-term position in TGX.
      However, I would be two-faced and hypocritical if I
      suddenly changed my argument in favor of TGX to hype this
      stock for my own personal gain. My current position in
      TGX doesn�t negate the fact that I have severe
      reservations about the long-term prospective of this company
      recovering from management ineptness. I still think hope
      exists for the company, if the board of directors would
      do the right thing and replaced the CEO.

      • 2 Replies to hd_lowrider_97
      • Generally when I short term trade a stock it is
        one in which I already hold a position and believe
        that it has good long term potential.

        Not sure
        of your rationale of looking for a quick return on a
        stock that you think will go down in price. I don't see
        how a change in interest rates or settlement of the
        election would affect this stock more than others. There
        are plenty of other stocks that have a good long term
        potential if the short term pop doesn't occur. Could you
        give us further insight into your thought process?

      • The point is: Nobody knows about the possibility
        TGX has. Actually I can�t understand why everybody is
        screaming for a new CEO...Jakobs has done the only right
        thing: As soon as she could - end of the EXCLUSIVE
        agreement with Indigo - she started to open new
        distribution channels with major players. I think she�s quite
        clever due to the following reasons:

        - opening
        new distribution channels
        - sees TGX as market
        leader (experience)
        - tries to build out the
        "question mark" Theraseed to a "star". Before this star
        will have turned into a "cash cow" she will build up
        new question marks in other cancer areas
        - she
        avoids stock dilution as good as she can and plays out
        TGX�s core competences which might be the ability of
        production and the historical experience

        I don�t
        agree with Jakobs being a bad CEO, she just couldn�t
        make Theraseed a star because of the Indigo agreement.
        Now Indigo has gone and the market is open: She has
        proven that she is willing to compete (or to cooperate)
        with the biggest players in this field - and to do
        this FAST (which I like enormously). Sooner than you
        can look, the quarterly reports will show

        -
        additional turnover
        - milestone payments
        - rapid
        earnings growth per share
        - initiation of new
        products

        and a higher stock quote.

        TGX is a niche
        player. But in this niche, TGX is the market leader, a
        market leader which now is ready to
        grow.

        Comments welcome,

        Quicktrader

 

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