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Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • superbmindset superbmindset Dec 5, 2009 12:03 AM Flag

    Tom’s Market Commentary

    There are several commentaries on investing that make for great reading. Tom Robinson’s market commentary is one such read.

    Diversification, of course, is a key factor in his risk-taking philosophy. And a lot of what he says is actually common sense, mostly based on sound fundamental reasoning-number anchors, statistical evidence etc…. But there are times when he tries to internalize the whole approach to the stock market to factors outside of the standard finance function. Here is his comment on March 9th, 2009:

    “It is hard to know what to say, except that maybe the doom and gloom has become too pervasive. When everyone is pessimistic that is usually a sign that equities may be nearing a bottom.” from opco.com

    I found myself nodding in agreement with Tom’s view; the great importance of behavioral finance is after all what I have come to accept over my years of analyzing the stock market. There are times when answers just cannot be explained by number anchors, statistical evidence or other sound fundamental reasoning....

    ….and there is simply times when you have to be a contrarian and times when you are simply forced to drift with the herd. March 9th, 2009 was not a time to be the latter and Tom was spot-on in recognizing this.

    Here is the link to the archives of the weekly market commentaries for those interested:

    http://www.opco.com/public/oppenheimer_asset/market_comments.html

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    • In a recent interview Brian Belski basically said that fundamentals is what drives market prices, not technicals….and Carter Worth, in a recent note, basically made fun of year-end targets like the ones made by Brian Belski….

      But how did these two analysts fare in the past few years:

      If you watch CNBC and Bloomberg you’ve seen Brian Belski “project” a year-end S&P 500 at 1,300. In fact, he reiterated his projection on August 24th, 2010 (yes, two weeks ago) on Bloomberg TV. Well, today he revised his forecast to 1,225. I am guessing by end of October/early November we will be treated to re-revised forecasts!

      If you watch Fast Money regularly, you might remember that on October 13th, 2008 Carter Worth was among the first chart watchers to signal a bottom. In fact, he was going all in! His “estimate” was a tad early (5 months early)!

      Then you can also read Tom Robinson’s commentary at opco.com. He was spot-on, finding the exact bottom on March 9, 2009 and this week he wrote: My own “guess” is that we will have lots of volatility….

      Note the wording: my own guess…

      While Brian “projects”, Carter “estimates”…. Tom just "guesses"...

      I’m with Tom on this one! :)

 
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