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Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. Message Board

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  • superbmindset superbmindset Feb 27, 2011 4:42 AM Flag

    A new Normal or a new Anomaly?

    A little more clarity on my “New Anomaly” theory: Back in November, I highlighted my correct predictions during the past few years….following that, I laid out the framework for what will potentially play out in the coming months.

    My prediction, what I coined as a “New Anomaly”, highlighted the findings of the author of the book “When Markets Collide.” (the author is of Egyptian origin)

    I highlighted how to understand global economic and financial developments, it is no longer sufficient to get the US, Europe and Japan right. It is also a matter of getting the emerging market economies right. And went on to stress the need to look at SWFs and the interactions between derivatives and underlying assets.

    Well, for those who don’t know, the majority, if not all SWFs’ origin, are oil investments!

    The “New Anomaly” theory here is that even though Global Economies will collapse, this might be a case similar to the anomalies witnessed in 2005 with bond yields. In other words, we might go through a crisis in the economies but not necessarily correspond to the same time interval when stock markets will face headwinds….

    We are already experiencing this phenomenon…When most economists were predicting a robust US economy with GPD growth for 4th quarter ranging from 3.5% to over 5%, I was certain it would be lower than 3%. Well, the number came in at 2.8%, combined with dismal housing data, and the markets are still moving along nicely.

    This is why I believe we need a superb mindset right now, and diversification is the most prudent tactical strategy, for now.

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