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Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. Message Board

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  • superbmindset superbmindset Jul 9, 2011 1:32 AM Flag

    Can the tea leaves be read?

    so why did economists get it so wrong?  

    the opinions of experts being sought concerning the coordinates of a ship that had "sunk" were varied, and it turned out that the answers, when averaged out, were off by almost 600% of the actual coordinates of the "sunken" ship!

    Everybody  hopes to be able to forecast reliably but few manage to succeed consistently in the market over the years. 

    and Again, my view is that the market is very bad at pricing in the effect of likely outcomes such that it is easy (for those that can) to make money by trading on such mispricings.

    Over the years, I have learned to respect the market and how it often defies one's strongest belief: that the market is forecastable.  Well it's not!  This is because the market, just like the economy,  is dynamic and made up of humans, not equations; if everyone believes the economy will add x amount of jobs then surely the next economist will feed off of the previous economist's forecast and adjust his numbers accordingly...the cascade effect.  the impact of this effect is overlooked when  it should really be overly factored in.

    but unemployment is one thing, the impact on actual business fundamentals is another. Contrarians would argue that when the economic indicators are negative one should go against them, because investors tend to under-price the market on what they consider "lagging" indicators...

    So what's next?  Brian says the market is flattening until the end of the year, to me that means the market is either going much higher or much lower!  Will explain on my next post titled "when you miss out on a bull run ps I heart Brian".  

 
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