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Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • superbmindset superbmindset Jul 11, 2011 9:49 PM Flag

    when You mISs oUt on A BULL run!

    almost a month ago I decided it was time to try and time the market by going all in. this begs the question: iF the tea leaves can’t be read, why wOUld one attempt to time the maRkeT.

    well the risk-on trade hErE is that I got iN at 1,280 while having a solid ytd % gain and could afford to have a negative return before I’d brake even for the year. tHat is more than a 100 point drop from today’s levels.

    since I have this +100 s&p point cUshioN, I am willing to stick with my all-in plan, because the thing I hate more than losing money; is missing out on a bull run!

    PS: I like Brian….but even though I can’t reaD the tea leaves; I cannot buy his 1,325 yeaR-EnD target. Not now.
    the problem here is the prediction is based on historical price trends; THe unlikeliness of a consecutive three-year double-digIt ReTurn theory.

    but if we believe the impossibility of the three year double digit theory due to historical evidence, then even more impossiBlY there couldn’t be a 2nd half flat return because there is even less hiStorical backing!

    in ordEr for his theory to be Proven correcT we neEd to have a flat 2nd half. last tiMe the market had a flat 2nd half of the year (flat: within plus or minus 2% return) was all the way Back in 1988.

    and 1988 already had a doublE digit gain up until mid-yeaR. SO I DON’T SEE ANY HISTORICAL CORRELATION HERE..

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    • Question: what would the opposite of a flash crash be called? Perhaps a flash dash? stash also rhymes with flash, so does cash! Any suggestions?

      Just wondering....how we would coin the phrase if we ever had one....

      • 1 Reply to superbmindset
      • I like to think that my cryptic style of writing is a little like reading tea leaves...

        it gives the reader a different perspective and forces him/her to be more diligent...

        all my posts since last November, for example, have had a political underpining...

        you might wonder why I use two user names, superbmindset and supermomentum...

        for the first period, up until November when I reviled the purpose, it was my stock market price sentiment...superbmomentum as bullish and superbmindset as not so bullish...

        at that time I gave a hint of what would be the next purpose of the two user names: it would be political...superbmomentum for the up and coming republican "right" change and superbmindset for the democratic "left" change...

        I was planning to continue posting these political "enhanced" posts for two years until the elections next year but since I am going all in with superbmindset, I don't think it makes sense to keep it political...

        I find most of my political references as much fun but the one I find most entertaining is my last, my reference to 1988 and how I don't see any historical correlation to the events happening today... clearly that election has no similarities to the upcoming ones!  :)

 
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