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Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • superbmindset superbmindset Oct 27, 2011 10:39 PM Flag

    Realization

    In my opinion, the reason for the upward movement in stock prices is simply the realization that the stock market was able to sustain its momentum in the pessimistic conditions and the investor never threw in the towel on stocks no matter the negative outlook.

    Sure, for me, stocks are now cheap, the European situation and economic conditions has changed in a way that moves a certain roadblock out of the way of higher stock prices. However, something else has not changed in the past few weeks.

    We witnessed all trends pointing upward and they are still constantly in an attempt to discover what’s out there that could move stock prices down. This fact to me does not signal a top! Quite the opposite, this is the main driver of an upward functioned market. And as long as we witness some market dips along the way that will surface more bears again, this factor will fuel the markets’ next move!

    I read all the bearish blogs, listen to all the pessimism out of the pundits on TV, I too, am trying to find a reason not to be bullish. Is productivity going to be sustained? Will earnings stop growing? Is there a potential recession in sight? Are we still Washington focused? Is there some troubling geopolitical event on the horizon? But the reality is, if the bears can’t answer these questions for me, simply and sensibly, well I just can’t switch sides, at least not yet.

    Today, for the first time, I agreed on everything Jim Cramer had to say and thoroughly enjoyed the first segment of his show: "Don't try and out-think the market. Good things can happen,"

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Glad you specified "today" on cramer because he changes everyday..he is such a crook. Just look at his eyes when he talks. My dad said to watch a mans eyes and take note of the speed in which a man speaks and it will tell you if he is full of do-do or not...cramer is the "poster child" of a crook and in the longrun imho will not be good for cnbc.....not saying he is not smart or that he can't talk about markets but in the long run he just does not know,,,,period. He acts like he knows all but only has a 50/50 chance of getting it right just like anyone else...imho....enjoy your posts

      • 1 Reply to baumanncynde
      • Thanks for your feedback.

        Although I agree with you, I wouldn’t be so harsh. I personally respect Cramer’s attempt to make investing more entertaining. What I disagree with him on is his suggestion that paying for financial advice is unnecessary when all you have to do is watch his show. He claims he can coach you on how to make money, thus making financial professionals obsolete!

        In the course of my involvement in the investing world, I have learned to appreciate the value of Financial Consultants in several aspects. In my opinion, what Cramer and others confuse is financial advice with market timing ability. A financial advisor is there to help you better plan for your future and help with your investment approach. Not on how to better time market moves.

        Sure, an institutional advisor can assist you on improving market timing strategies with more detailed analyst reports and investing tools. But although these are important tools in the fundamental investor's arsenal, an advisor’s ultimate goal is helping supply the investor with additional facts about all aspects of one’s financial reality and help to aid his understanding and all possible options before making his final decisions.

        There is no question that financial shows, as well as the internet and other media has reduced the information asymmetry between the do-it-yourself investor and the institutional investors like never before, but at the same time, I strongly believe that there is still a clear (or superior) advantage of having additional facts before hitting the buy/sell button.

        More importantly, an investor can find an advisor useful for bouncing his views off an experienced individual, who knows his unique financial situation, and getting comments in return; the investor gets a different perspective. For some, it can also be considered as part of getting additional insights into an idea he has been developing about the markets.

        In other words, to me, an experienced Financial Consultant acts as a sounding board to test the strength of one’s beliefs.

        So although a TV show, like Mad Money, can be an extremely useful source of information, it is just unfiltered information. This investment advice might not apply to your unique financial situation and it might not be appropriate for your time horizon, risk tolerance or amount of investable assets.

 
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