One day in early November the chief of a Native American tribe was asked by his tribal elders if the winter of 2011/12 was going to be cold or mild. The chief asked his medicine man, but he too had lost touch with the reading signs from the natural world around the Great Lakes.
The chief decided to take a modern approach, and the chief rang the National Weather Service in Michigan.
'Yes, it is going to be a cold winter,' the meteorological officer told the chief.
Consequently, he went back to his tribe and told the men to collect plenty of firewood.
A fortnight later the chief called the Weather Service and asked for an update. 'Are you still forecasting a cold winter?' he asked.
'Yes, very cold', the weather officer told him.
As a result of this brief conversation the chief went back to the tribe and told his people to collect every bit of wood they could find.
A month later the chief called the National Weather Service once more and asked about the coming winter. 'Yes,' he was told, 'it is going to be one of the coldest winters ever.'
'How can you be so sure?' the chief asked.
The weatherman replied: 'Because the Native Americans of the Great Lakes are collecting wood like crazy.'
My point here is: the Fed using modern approaches has concluded that economic growth is frustratingly slow. They should thus make a decision now and stop relying on whether Americans are “collecting wood” or not….
In the past I've criticized financial blogs for their oversimplification of complex ideas and their unsubstantiated reports.
However, when compared to other financial news reports they seem to understand the issues better than most (perhaps with the exception of FT & WSJ)...
Mainstream financial media only report topics that they are familiar with..If an issue arises in which they have no knowledge of, they will avoid reporting on it, all together.
But the market is not just reacting to headline news i.e. what the Fed members are saying. The market's focus is more in what actions are taken and what the chairman chooses to communicate...Market participants are now more aware of the underlining factors that could drive prices higher or lower.
The point is: The price action in August and September was troubling, it was a function of words, rather than facts. I really like the market reaction the past few weeks! And these financial blogs might have also contributed to this by reporting more facts than just opinions of second ranking officials! The focus has clearly switched to a more analytical approach, than an unfiltered-reactionary one...