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Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. Message Board

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  • baumanncynde baumanncynde Jan 23, 2012 5:20 PM Flag

    Shooting Blanks!

    BEST OF THE BAD??

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    • Nah, worst of the good!

      • 1 Reply to superbmindset
      • There is a preview of a new show on Fox Channel this Wednesday. It’s called Touch. You should watch it.

        The general premise of the show is that a kid can predict the future.

        I posed a related question back in June 2011. The title: Can the Tea Leaves be Read? You might not be able to view those posts since they carry a ONE star rating! You’ll need to change the settings to “one star plus unrated” and look for it…

        If you read those posts and try to make sense of them today, you might find proof of all things being interconnected or you might actually find proof that everything is random and uncorrelated. I tried to do my best to answer the question of whether tea leaves can be read, I’m now leaving it up to others to decide.

        So if you read those posts and try to make sense of it all, you’ll find that if I was looking in the rearview mirror, I was clearly doing a lousy job because what I was describing never really occurred but if I was looking in my crystal ball, then my prediction back in June 2011 had many similarities on what actually transpired in the coming months.

        Case in point, the market saw its largest yearly one day gain a week after the day I signed off, not on March 21st but on November 21st. As I had pointed out, the prediction would be early by just two days, since there was actually a larger gain than November 28th, it was on November 30th, 2011. As I had also pointed out, the prediction would actually be within 1% of the highest one day gains (we witnessed two days in August with slightly higher one day gains).

        This begs the question: were the mistakes of the description of past events made purposely? And if there were made purposely, did the writer actually have some foresight or was it all a game of chance?

        The skill/ability of reading tea leaves has been a bone of contention especially among stock market players. So how true is this, really?

        The example I used to explain this was the well-known anecdote about opinions of experts being sought concerning the coordinates of a ship that had sunk. Yeah, I know, anyone reading this now is probably rolling their eyes. Jeez, one would say, we are just fooled by randomness here….

        Following these posts, I cited examples from a not so well-known book called “the Bull Hunter.” I used a book written back in 2004-2005 to help describe current events. If you’re interested and start reading this book you’ll find that most of my ideas in the past few months have used this book as a reference point.

        But the question will still remain, is all this an extremely well timed interpretation of the events unfolding in the financial, economic and geopolitical stage? Or is it just gibberish that you can derive to different conclusions depending on your viewpoint?

        My attempts to prove whether one can accurately predict the future or whether we are just easily succumbed to our desire to accept supernatural abilities….is a continuous one….more to follow…

 
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