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Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. Message Board

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  • superbmomentum superbmomentum Apr 3, 2012 10:57 PM Flag

    GLD

    I love reading the analytical approach of certain financial blogs, great perspectives…

    Especially today’s notes on gold have been very insightful…

    Although there seems to be a certain correlation between real interest rates and the price of gold, in my view this is not the main driver of gold prices. To me, real interest rates have little benefit as a forecasting tool and its accuracy is necessarily questionable. Changes in the real interest rate have historically not provided any reliable guidance to the direction of gold prices.

    The pattern I look at when trying to predict gold prices is the saving rate. It is the only reliable source of data in my mind. It is a helpful forecasting tool and an accurate general guide. When the saving rate decreases, gold prices move lower.

    So I’ll pose the question again, in a different way, why is it the gold price has not moved lower when the saving rate has? Who’s buying the gold, if the consumer is not?!

 
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