The bears and even some bulls say that all this optimism of the markets is an illusion, it is a Fed induced rally and not a fundamental expansion….As we all know this rally is not due to current extraordinary revenue growth, superb margin growth or low price to earnings multiples but to me, it all boils down to the realization by investors that American companies are dominating the world and can easily expand market share if only they put their cash to work more aggressively. We need to see an increasing acceleration in money supply that will trickle down to the real economy.
With that said, I still like the hesitation by these institutions, it is proof that nowadays firms are more rational; many are still reeling financially from the financial crisis a few years back.
The fact that no mid/large cap companies are trading like a 50 cent-on-the-dollar investment, despite the stimulus of quantitative easing, is a very strong sign. Even as earnings and margins might still be on the normal side, the current trends capture the potential of a rising and explosive US investment-based mindset.
Based on the history of global investors to US based companies, we can be fairly certain that a strong rally will come soon enough. I don’t know if the spike in performance will come by month-end or year-end but I believe that we have in no way reached the top. A potential strengthening in the US will be the driving force and lead to a rise of all boats…. global markets will surely follow…
the most likely trend to follow is the strength of the economy….which will anchor a further rise in the stock market….