I think earnings could come in at 3.41 a share.... pe is only going to be an 8 then...could be an easy price per share double...
msft to double its value for longterm shareholders is my new years resolution... lol
or just realize it is always going to trade in the $24 to $33 range, and will dip low in the fall and surge high in the winter. Buy and Sell, rinse repeat....leverage with options if you have the guts...100% return a year is not out of the question.
Agree. I brought 100 Feb 28 call and sell 100 Feb 26 put when the price is close. Close them when making around 30%. Recent example is paying 0.57 for Feb 28 call and sell Feb 26 put for 0.61. Today I sell the call for 0.61 and buy the put for 0.27 The whole transactions make $3800 ( 0.38 )without cash upfront. I do this 3 times in Dec 2012.
Lightdoesnotage, How do you make 100%..sorry don't understand your comment. Even the range has shifted up. In 2012, the low was 26.26. The high was 32.95. Also how do you leverage with options safely? Please educate.
I somewhat agree with you that msft stock cycles between 24-33 range; history for the last 10 years shows that. However, msft has also been safe and idling for the last decade. They made profits with their dominence in software, but only until now that they venture into Hardware. Windows 8 is different from other windows versions because it allows collaboration of touchpads to PC's-- allmost nearly as important as discovering the first software. Thus, it will revive the slump in PC business and allows more gaming in touchpads/laptops.
On one hand, it doesn't hurt to buy in at 27 and if it cycles back to 33, you will still profit. If msft takes off because of Window 8 and surface, then you will double and triple your equity. Which ever way you look at it, it is a strong buy at these levels.
At 8x forward earnings this one looks ridiculously under priced. I think if we see win tablets and win phones really take off like I am expecting over the next 1 to 2 years, than I can easily see them earning 4.50 a share a couple of years out, and then you put a 15x multiple on it and you have 60-70 dollar stock a couple of years out. A double a couple of years out really isn't out of the question.
Lots of investors paid more than 30 for MSFT shares. 30 seems to be the magic number for pumpers who want to bail out. I got news for you. Most insiders have options to buy at 25. Most of them cash in their options and sell at 27-28. You'll have to get in line behind them if you want to sell your shares for 30.
$35 into Surface Pro release would be interesting. When is Surface Pro release? $50 mid year is possible with FY2014 earnings of $3.70 and a fwd PE of about 13 which is still fwd PE of 11 or so net of cash. I bought more today